146
FXUS01 KWBC 190738
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
337 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024
VALID 12Z SUN MAY 19 2024 - 12Z TUE MAY 21 2024
...INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREATS OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...SWELTERING HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS WHILE EXPANDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
AN ENERGETIC UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRING A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON SUNDAY, MOIST
RETURN FLOW FOLLOWING A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROVIDE
MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER ROBUST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES. STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS, BRINGING A HEIGHTENED THREAT
FOR POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS LATER
SUNDAY EVENING. AS SUCH, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 4/5). STORM CHANCES WILL
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY FOLLOWING AN INITIAL
UPPER-WAVE/ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN AMPLIFYING
LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL HELP TO ENHANCE LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MISSOURI VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)
FOR THE THREAT OF SOME MORE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY, WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE ACTIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE, THOUGH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER WYOMING ON MONDAY. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD, EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
INTENSE SUMMER-LIKE HEAT WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES
FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BRING HEAT INDICES INTO THE
105-110 DEGREE RANGE, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA SUNDAY. WHILE NOT AS HUMID, TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO
THE 100S FURTHER INLAND INTO WEST TEXAS/THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SOME RECORD-TYING/BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE NOT AS
HOT, CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MORE BROADLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. HIGHS IN 80S WILL BE COMMON, EVEN
INTO MORE NORTHERLY LOCATIONS LIKE THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS
THINGS A BIT COOLER ALONG THE EAST COAST, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S EXPECTED FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTH INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND COASTAL CAROLINAS. HIGHS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN COOL SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE
80S AND 90S ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
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