507
FXUS01 KWBC 212018
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
417 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2024
VALID 00Z WED MAY 22 2024 - 00Z FRI MAY 24 2024
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...
...HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING...
ON TUESDAY EVENING, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TO THE NORTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY, THEN DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL FIRE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER IOWA,
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN, NORTHERN MISSOURI, AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A SMALL PART OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THERE WILL BE THE ADDED THREAT
OF EF2- EF5 TORNADOS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65
KNOTS OR GREATER OVER THE REGION. MOREOVER, THERE WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FURTHERMORE, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE HEAVY RAIN
TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA, WESTERN WISCONSIN, NORTHERN
IOWA, AND ADJACENT AREAS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE
AN ADDED THREAT OF HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION.
MOREOVER, SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
ON THURSDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES SLIGHTLY
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
SIMILARLY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY, ADVANCING TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER INLAND, THE SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER,
PRODUCING SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY, THE RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON THURSDAY, THE RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SYSTEM WILL CREATE AREAS OF
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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