479
FXUS01 KWBC 230814
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2024
VALID 12Z THU MAY 23 2024 - 12Z SAT MAY 25 2024
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION TODAY WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT...
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST AND REMAIN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION ON FRIDAY...
...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. MEANWHILE,
THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GREATEST TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REFORM ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS
IN THE VICINITY, ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SOME ADDITIONAL LIFTING
MECHANISMS FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAM FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
THE JET STREAM WINDS WILL TEND TO CARRY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES, KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE, A RATHER DEEP AND COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW FROM ALASKA A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO IS NOW SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO USHER A COLD AIR MASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH A ROUND OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER-ELEVATIONS OF IDAHO, WESTERN MONTANA, AND INTO
NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN WYOMING TODAY. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL HELP DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS UP AND DOWN THE GREAT
PLAINS LATER TODAY, AND WILL BEGIN TO LIFT EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST, AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A
SWATH OF COLD RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA, SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA, AND INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AS THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES COULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN LATER TONIGHT
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. INCREASINGLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO ADD TO THE CHILL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES
AND WRAPS THE PRECIPITATION AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. BY
SATURDAY MORNING, THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTS. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE OLD
FRONT LINGERS.
ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AN EARLY-SEASON HEAT WAVE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO RELIEF TO THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE OR
RELIABLE COOLING. BY THIS WEEKEND, RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND HEAT INDEX READINGS OVER 115 DEGREES IN SOUTH TEXAS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. CHECK LOCAL MEDIA AND GOVERNMENT WEBSITES FOR COOLING
CENTER LOCATIONS AND HOURS, ESPECIALLY IF YOU ENCOUNTER OR ARE
DEALING WITH A LOSS OF POWER. IF YOU USE A PORTABLE GENERATOR, DO
SO SAFELY TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. NEVER USE A
GENERATOR INSIDE A HOUSE, GARAGE, OR OTHER ENCLOSED SPACE!
FINALLY, A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS PER THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER.
KONG/ZIEGENFELDER
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