792
FXUS01 KWBC 232018
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
417 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2024
VALID 00Z FRI MAY 24 2024 - 00Z SUN MAY 26 2024
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY, MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS ON THURSDAY...
.. THERE ARE HEAT ADVISORIES OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS
ON THURSDAY EVENING, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY
SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS, SHOWERS
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER THE REGION.
FURTHERMORE, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER REGION WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE REST OF THE PLAINS AND
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION,
THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF HAIL, TWO INCHES OR GREATER, OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOREOVER, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE HEAVY RAIN TO
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHER, ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDING FROM MAINE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC, THEN WESTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
WILL GET REINFORCED BY A THIRD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL CREATE TWO AREAS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINE AND PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER TWO AREAS: ONE OVER MAINE AND A SECOND OVER THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
MOREOVER, SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON FRIDAY, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES ONTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AND
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT OF HAIL, TWO INCHES OR GREATER, OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ALSO, ON FRIDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH TWO AREAS OF A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI,
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE SECOND OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
A DRYLINE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MEANWHILE, A SUB-TROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER MEXICO WILL AID IN
SPAWNING HEAT ADVISORIES OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
RIDGING WILL CREATE A DANGEROUS EARLY-SEASON HEAT WAVE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS, SOUTHERN FLORIDA, AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. RECORD
OR NEAR-RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE LITTLE TO
NO RELIEF TO THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE OR RELIABLE COOLING. BY THIS
WEEKEND, RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX READINGS
OVER 115 DEGREES OVER THE REGIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME RELIEF MAY REACH
THE GULF COAST AFTER MEMORIAL DAY WITH A COLD FRONT. CHECK LOCAL
MEDIA AND GOVERNMENT WEBSITES FOR COOLING CENTER LOCATIONS AND
HOURS, ESPECIALLY IF YOU ENCOUNTER OR ARE DEALING WITH A LOSS OF
POWER. IF YOU USE A PORTABLE GENERATOR, DO SO SAFELY TO AVOID
CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. NEVER USE A GENERATOR INSIDE A HOUSE,
GARAGE, OR OTHER ENCLOSED SPACE!
ZIEGENFELDER
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