441
FXUS01 KWBC 240759
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2024
VALID 12Z FRI MAY 24 2024 - 12Z SUN MAY 26 2024
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTEND FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...
...NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING INTO
PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...
...DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS, THE GULF COAST, AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND...
THE RELENTLESSLY ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. AN INITIAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY, WHILE AN
ATTACHED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, SHOULD MAINTAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, COLD AIR ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
STRONG SYSTEM COULD ALLOW FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH DAKOTA. ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD,
STORMS COULD TURN SEVERE FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS, FAR EASTERN IOWA, AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS
SAME COLD FRONT COULD SLOW IT'S FORWARD PROGRESS AND ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO POTENTIALLY TRAIN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, AND NORTHEAST TEXAS, LEADING TO THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING. ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DAMPEN OUTDOORS PLANS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SPARK THE NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE ON SATURDAY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE,
LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS FORECAST
TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHILE A SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO TURN SEVERE,
CONTAINING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL, INTENSE RAINFALL RATES, A FEW
TORNADOES, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, AND WESTERN MISSOURI IN ORDER TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT. AS CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY, THE FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL SHIFT
TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. TORNADOES, HAIL, STRONG
WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
LOCATED WITHIN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND ARE
URGED TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS AND TO CONTINUE
TO CHECK FOR THE LATEST FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE, HEAT REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ALONG THE GULF
COAST, SOUTH TEXAS, AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT SOUTH TEXAS INTO LATE THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGHS SOAR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK, WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 120
DEGREES POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S ARE ANTICIPATED
TO SPREAD INTO MUCH OF TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HIGH
HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST REGION AND
SOUTH FLORIDA, WHILE ALSO POTENTIALLY BREAKING A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WARM OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PROVIDE LITTLE
TO NO RELIEF FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE OR RELIABLE COOLING.
SNELL
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