234  
FXUS01 KWBC 252009  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
409 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2024  
 
VALID 00Z SUN MAY 26 2024 - 00Z TUE MAY 28 2024  
 
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND AN ENHANCED RISK OVER PARTS OF  
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE/OHIO  
VALLEYS ON THURSDAY...  
 
... THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER  
SOUTHERN TEXAS...  
 
ON SATURDAY EVENING, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL  
MOVE EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. ALSO,  
ON SATURDAY, A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD TO  
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, AND  
CENTRAL TEXAS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK  
(LEVEL 4/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION,  
THERE WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT OF EF2 TO EF5 TORNADOES AND HAIL,  
TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER THE REGION. FURTHER, ANOTHER ADDED  
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER  
OVER THE KANSAS, WESTERN MISSOURI, AND PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.  
 
FURTHERMORE, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER REGION WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND  
WESTERN GEORGIA. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK  
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST  
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND  
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.  
 
MOREOVER, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE HEAVY RAIN TO  
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, EASTERN KANSAS,  
WESTERN MISSOURI, AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWESTERN  
ARKANSAS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)  
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY AND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL  
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,  
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, A NEW FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN  
HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE EASTWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES,  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY WILL CREATE AN AREA OF  
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI  
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED  
RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY  
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A  
FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT OF EF2  
TO EF5 TORNADOES, HAIL, TWO INCHES OR GREATER, AND SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE  
REGION.  
 
MOREOVER, SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN  
OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A  
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE  
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED  
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,  
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE  
MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
ON MONDAY, AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE  
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES ONTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE HAZARDS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW  
TORNADOES  
 
ALSO, ON MONDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EASTWARD TO  
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE WPC  
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER  
PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,  
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE  
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH  
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING  
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE  
EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. THE ENERGY WILL PRODUCE  
RAIN AND HIGHEST ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFICA  
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL  
ROCKIES FROM SATURDAY EVENING TAPERING OFF BY SUNDAY EVENING.  
MOREOVER, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN PRODUCING RAIN OVER PARTS  
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
FURTHERMORE, A SUB-TROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER MEXICO WILL AID  
IN SPAWNING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER  
SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGING WILL CREATE A DANGEROUS  
EARLY-SEASON HEAT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  
RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE  
LITTLE TO NO RELIEF TO THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE OR RELIABLE COOLING.  
BY THIS WEEKEND, RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX  
READINGS OVER 115 DEGREES OVER THE REGIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  
THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY WITH A COLD  
FRONT PASSING THE AREA AFTER MEMORIAL DAY. CHECK LOCAL MEDIA AND  
GOVERNMENT WEBSITES FOR COOLING CENTER LOCATIONS AND HOURS,  
ESPECIALLY IF YOU ENCOUNTER OR ARE DEALING WITH A LOSS OF POWER.  
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND AVOID ALCOHOL, WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT  
CLOTHING, AND TAKE REGULAR BREAKS INDOORS OR IN THE SHADE.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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