835
FXUS01 KWBC 260744
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2024
VALID 12Z SUN MAY 26 2024 - 12Z TUE MAY 28 2024
...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES SHIFT INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY BEFORE
PROGRESSING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, AND GULF COAST ON
MEMORIAL DAY...
...DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS
PARTS OF TEXAS, THE WESTERN GULF COAST, AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING...
AN ORGANIZING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM KANSAS/MISSOURI TO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TEXAS. BOUNDARIES AIDING THIS CONVECTION
INCLUDE A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. CURRENT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW
UPSCALE AND MERGE INTO A LARGER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BY
MORNING WHILE SWINGING THROUGH PARTS OF MISSOURI, ILLINOIS,
WESTERN KENTUCKY, AND NEIGHBORING STATES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAIN
MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WITH THIS
INITIAL BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
COLD FRONT AND IMPACT SIMILAR REGIONS, WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
SHIFTING FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MORE
CHANCES FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE, WITH
REPEATING STORMS POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
THROUGHOUT PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. AREA OF HEAVY RAIN MAY
ALSO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AND THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL FOCUS
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. AND GULF COAST STATES. MORE SPECIFICALLY,
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR INTENSE RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEIGHBORING
SECTION OF SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY, WHERE A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT ON
MEMORIAL DAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS AN AREA STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL HAZARDS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS PLANNING
TO ENJOY OUTDOOR HOLIDAY BARBECUES AND PARTIES SHOULD REMAIN
WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS.
OPPRESSIVE AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT IS SET TO CONTINUE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGHOUT PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS, THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GULF COAST, WITH TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN HOTTER, WITH HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 115 DEGREES. DAILY RECORD HIGHS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION AND EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA AS WELL
THROUGH TUESDAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW PROPER
HEAT SAFETY BY STAYING HYDRATED, TAKING BREAKS INSIDE BUILDINGS
WITH AIR CONDITIONING, AS WELL AS CHECKING ON THE VULNERABLE
POPULATION. ABOVE AVERAGE AND SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
EXTEND TOWARDS THE EASTERN U.S. TODAY AS WELL BEFORE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. CONVERSELY,
A WARM UP IS ON THE WAY THROUGHOUT THE WEST AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS AND SPREADS HIGHS INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, THE NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS SET TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SPARK DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WESTERN OKLAHOMA/KANSAS TO TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
SOME STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MAY ALSO BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
SNELL
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