741
FXUS01 KWBC 261956
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 PM EDT SUN MAY 26 2024
VALID 00Z MON MAY 27 2024 - 00Z WED MAY 29 2024
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY AND A SLIGHT RISK OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS...
ON SUNDAY EVENING, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE,
THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION,
THERE WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT OF EF2 TO EF5 TORNADOES AND HAIL,
TWO INCHES OR GREATER, OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. FURTHER, THERE WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER REGION OVER
PARTS OF THE EASTERN OHIO/EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
FURTHERMORE, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE HEAVY RAIN
TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF FAR EASTERN MISSOURI, EXTREME SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS, AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF KENTUCKY. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. FURTHERMORE, MANY STREAMS
MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
IN ADDITION, ANOTHER REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF WISCONSIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON MONDAY, AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
THE SOUTHEAST FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
ALSO, ON MONDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON TUESDAY, NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
STREAM NORTHWARD, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES, REINFORCING AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH BY TUESDAY. THE ENERGY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY EVENING, MOVING
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY.
MOREOVER, A WEAKENING FRONT ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL
AID IN PRODUCING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FURTHERMORE, A SUB-TROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER MEXICO WILL AID
IN SPAWNING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. THE RIDGING WILL CREATE A DANGEROUS EARLY-SEASON HEAT WAVE
OVER SOUTH TEXAS, CENTRAL GULF COAST, AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. RECORD
OR NEAR-RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE LITTLE TO
NO RELIEF TO THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE OR RELIABLE COOLING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS, AND HEAT INDEX
READINGS OVER 115 DEGREES OVER THE REGIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY, WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSING THE AREA AFTER MEMORIAL DAY. CHECK LOCAL MEDIA AND
GOVERNMENT WEBSITES FOR COOLING CENTER LOCATIONS AND HOURS,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU ENCOUNTER OR ARE DEALING WITH A LOSS OF POWER.
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, AVOID ALCOHOL, WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT CLOTHING,
AND TAKE REGULAR BREAKS INDOORS OR IN THE SHADE.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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