758
FXUS06 KWBC 271902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 06 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES STRONG TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. RIDGING AND
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS), WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH IS DEPICTED OVER THE SOUTHERN EAST SEABOARD
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS (EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA, WHERE
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH PREDICTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN EASTERN SEABOARD) DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED MID-LEVEL RIDGING,
GENERALLY ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS.
PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80% FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE
INCREASED OVER ALASKA, INCLUDING THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CLOSER TO
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE STORMINESS. IN HAWAII, SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED UNDERNEATH NEAR- TO WEAK POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES.
ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST WHERE
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED DUE TO A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA. IN CONTRAST, NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE
INCREASED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS DUE TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, AND
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. IN ALASKA,
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED OVER MUCH OF ALASKA DUE TO THE
TREND TOWARD INCREASED TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE LATER
IN THE PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. IN HAWAII,
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ACROSS HAWAII
ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 04 - 10 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS.THE GEFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A RIDGE WITH ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. WEAK ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. STROUG TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE PERSISTENT OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE STILL PREDICTED OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BROADLY ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS WELL AS
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVOR ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS,
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY, FAVORING SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO LINGERING INFLUENCE
FROM A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES PREDICTED OVER THE REGION. IN
ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE, SIMILAR TO THE 6- TO 10-DAY FORECAST PERIOD GIVEN THE VERY
SIMILAR MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. IN HAWAII, SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE STATE, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL.
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOOLS. THERE IS A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ELEVATED BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WEST EXTENDING
EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES, UNDER A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA
ANOMALIES PREDICTED OVER THE REGION. THERE ARE ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG MOST OF THE WEST COAST, UNDER A MOIST PACIFIC
AIR MASS AND SOME POTENTIAL INFLUENCE FROM THE STRONG TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS TROUGHING CONTINUES TO FAVOR ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA. SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE HAWAII ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY AMONG FORECAST MODELS, OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS REGARDING STRENGTH AND POSITION OF VARIOUS SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19660514 - 19620528 - 19660519 - 20040529 - 19620602
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19660515 - 19620528 - 20040528 - 19660520 - 19620602
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 06 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 04 - 10 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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