467
FXUS01 KWBC 310745
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024
VALID 12Z FRI MAY 31 2024 - 12Z SUN JUN 02 2024
...SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND...
..HEAT RISK CONTINUES OVER FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND. TODAY A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROPAGATE FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN TEXAS, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE EVENTS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO BEING THE MAIN HAZARD THREATS. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THERE'S ALSO A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS.
THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY STORMS
WILL INITIATE AND BE MOST IMPACTFUL.
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF
STORMS MAY PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BEGINNING IN THE
MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE EFFICIENT ENOUGH RAIN
PRODUCERS TO WARRANT ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SEVERE WIND, HAIL AND A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES COULD IMPACT THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, HEAT RISK CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN OVER SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO
BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. TROUGHING IN THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY, BRINGING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.
KEBEDE
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page