057
FXUS06 KWBC 031902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JUNE 03 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 09 - 13 2024
THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER FOR A ROBUST MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGING IN THE WEST. IN ALASKA, NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BUT A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. FOR HAWAII,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST.
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY NOT REACH THE
GULF COAST REGION WHERE DYNAMICAL TOOLS CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY TO SOUTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS FOR HOW FAR WEST TO TAKE THE
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE ECENS REFORECAST
AND SHORT TERM BIAS-CORRECTED FURTHER WEST RELATIVE TO THE GEFS BASED TOOLS. IN
RECENT MONTHS, THE ECENS HAS DONE SLIGHTLY BETTER WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES AND THIS FORECAST TRENDS IN THAT
DIRECTION. IN THE WEST, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SLIGHTLY REDUCED TEMPERATURE CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE AN UNDERCUTTING TROUGH MAY
REDUCE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE REST OF THE MAINLAND IS FAVORED TO HAVE NEAR-
TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. IN HAWAII, NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES BEING FAVORED TO BE NEAR-NORMAL.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN
WITH FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AMONG THE MODEL TOOLS. THE GEFS BASED TOOLS ARE
FORECASTING DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
WHILE THE ECENS BASED TOOLS ARE FORECASTING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LIKELY TO BE IN THE
REGION. THE WETTER ECENS REFORECAST TOOL HAS BEEN PERFORMING BETTER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST IN RECENT WEEKS AND A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED. ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE ALOFT, FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. IN THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, A DEPARTING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL REGION IS LIKELY TO BRING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED ALONG THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII BENEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGING.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURES TOOLS IS OFFSET BY
REDUCED AGREEMENT IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 11 - 17 2024
THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 MAINTAINS A RIDGE AND TROUGH PATTERN
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS, RESPECTIVELY, FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE ANOMALIES ARE GENERALLY A BIT WEAKER RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS
THE CONUS, LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED MODEL SPREAD. THE RIDGE AND TROUGH AXIS ARE
ALSO SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO PREDICT A WEAK TROUGH TO DEVELOP NEAR AND ALONG THE WEST COAST BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN
ALASKA, NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. SOME RIDGING MAY TRY TO RETROGRADE INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BUT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS, RIO-GRANDE VALLEY, AND GULF COAST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
LOOKS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE WEST. IN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND GULF COAST, ANY COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, ARE FORECAST TO STALL OUT BEFORE THEY REACH THE GULF
COAST LIMITING ANY CHANCES FOR LONGER TERM BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FURTHER
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ONE OR TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES OCCURRING DURING THE WEEK-2
PERIOD. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE MAINLAND WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND, ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE RAW AND SHORT-TERM BIAS-CORRECTED
TOOLS GENERALLY FAVOR COLDER SOLUTIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE BUT
REFORECAST TOOLS TREND A BIT WARMER. IN HAWAII, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE AMOUNT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS DURING
WEEK-2 WITH LIMITED SUPPORT FOR ABOVE OR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
COUNTRY. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED AHEAD AND AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND BENEATH THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. IN
THE ARID REGIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED. IN ALASKA, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
BENEATH NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND WEAK TROUGHING. IN HAWAII, NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED WITH NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURES TOOLS IS OFFSET BY
REDUCED AGREEMENT IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK AND LOWER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19550527 - 20030515 - 19880527 - 19730520 - 19910530
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19550527 - 20030515 - 19520527 - 19880527 - 19910530
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 09 - 13 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 11 - 17 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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