076
FXUS01 KWBC 031958
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EDT MON JUN 03 2024
VALID 00Z TUE JUN 04 2024 - 00Z THU JUN 06 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND OVER THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS; AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY
AND THE UPPER /MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS, EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES, AND
HEAT ADVISORIES OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AND
HEAT ADVISORIES OVER WESTERN/SOUTHERN TEXAS...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GREAT
BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
FURTHERMORE, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN
OVER NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THEREFORE,
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO CREATE SHOWERS
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES. MOREOVER, THERE IS AN ADDED THREAT OF HAIL, TWO
INCHES OR GREATER OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA.
LIKEWISE, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON TUESDAY, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MERGE WITH THE FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE
SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
MOREOVER, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE UPPER/MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN. ALSO, ON WEDNESDAY, THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE LOWER FORTY-EIGHT
STATES.
MEANWHILE, ON MONDAY, RAIN AND SNOW MELT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RUNOFF OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
IN ADDITION, EARLY TUESDAY, A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INLAND TO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
AND WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER PARTS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
FURTHERMORE, A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS, AIDING IN
SPAWNING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS, EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES, AND HEAT
ADVISORIES OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
MOREOVER, THE RIDGING WILL CREATE THE FIRST ROUND OF DANGEROUS
HEAT THIS SEASON. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR FOR THE WEST
WILL BUILD IN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY, THE HEAT WILL CREATE RECORD-BREAKING DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIAâ€S CENTRAL VALLEY. BE
SURE TO BREAK YOUR HEAT EXPOSURE BY AVOIDING OUTDOOR TIME AT THE
HOTTEST TIMES OF THE DAY. CHECK LOCAL MEDIA AND GOVERNMENT
WEBSITES FOR COOLING CENTER LOCATIONS AND HOURS.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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