628
FXUS01 KWBC 040714
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
313 AM EDT TUE JUN 04 2024
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 04 2024 - 12Z THU JUN 06 2024
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKLATEX
TODAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY...
...GROWING EXCESSIVE HEAT POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA'S
CENTRAL VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST; SOUTHERN
TEXAS HEAT RISK PERSISTS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BRINGING WITH IT A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. POTENT
MID-LEVEL ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN-CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH TODAY AND PROMOTE A PAIR OF MCSS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT. THE REPEATING
THUNDERSTORMS (POTENTIALLY SEVERE) OVER THE SAME AREA PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A MODERATE RISK (AT LEAST 40%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE ARKLATEX FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FRONTALLY DRIVEN DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL ALSO OCCUR
ACROSS THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED SLIGHT RISKS (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ANOTHER ONE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHILE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE SOLE THREAT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A DEEPENING UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND CUTOFF LOW WEST OF BAJA
WILL SUPPORT A HEAT WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY BUT WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY WARMER CONDITIONS
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN INCLUDE THE
LOW ELEVATION REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA'S CENTRAL VALLEY AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY CLIMB OVER
100 DEGREES BEGINNING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 20-30
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE LIKELY. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURE RECORDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIED OR BROKEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTEND
FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA'S
DESERTS, SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHERN/WESTERN ARIZONA. HEATRISK
WILL PEAK OVER CALIFORNIA'S CENTRAL VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
EXPANDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS WEEK. LITTLE
OVERNIGHT RELIEF WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR THOSE
WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. HEATRISK OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS PEAKS TODAY BUT PERSISTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KEBEDE
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