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FXUS06 KWBC 051914
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JUNE 05 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 11 - 15 2024
THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN (CMCE) PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHTS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER FOR A ROBUST MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND TROUGH
ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) RESPECTIVELY. THE
ECENS AND CMCE ARE THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS TODAY REGARDING THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE
RIDGING IN THE WEST. IN ALASKA, HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL OVER NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA. FOR HAWAII, SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST.
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, WITH THE ECENS DEPICTING A POSSIBLE SECOND COLD
FRONT IN ITS WAKE, MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
CHANCES ACROSS THIS REGION, AT LEAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE SOUTHWARD
ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND ALSO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GEFS AND THE ECENS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN THE WEST,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. FOR
ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA. THE REST OF THE MAINLAND IS FAVORED TO HAVE NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. IN HAWAII, THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN WARMER TEMPERATURES DEPICTED BY THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES DEPICTED BY THE AUTO TEMPERATURE TOOL, WITH NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAVORED.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS, ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS FLORIDA, WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO ELEVATE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. UNCALIBRATED TOTALS FROM THE ECENS AND GEFS RANGE FROM 2-4+ INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD (THE CMCE DEPICTS 1-2 INCHES). ODDS FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXCEED 60% IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE ALSO ENHANCED FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ANTICIPATED NEAR THE WEST COAST, AND IS ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO CENTRAL MONTANA, ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND CONSISTENT WITH THE AUTO AND CONSOLIDATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST COAST, A BROAD AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS DEPICTED, SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. IN ALASKA, THE AUTO AND CONSOLIDATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS
DEPICT ODDS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY TILTED TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
OF THE STATE, WITH MOSTLY NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREAS. FOR HAWAII, THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN AUTO AND
CONSOLIDATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS IS OFFSET BY REDUCED
AGREEMENT IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 13 - 19 2024
THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 IS TRANSITIONING TOWARDS RIDGING ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, AND TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
ALONG/JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THE CMCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TODAY THAN THE OTHER
TWO ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EXPECTED TRANSITION. IN ALASKA, NEAR
TO ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST WITH RIDGING TRYING TO BRIEFLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN HAWAII, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER THE VICINITY OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DUE TO A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, HOWEVER, HAS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING WEEK-2. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WITH A +60 METER HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED ON THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60%
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION, WHICH REPRESENTS A RAPID TRANSITION FROM YESTERDAY’S OFFICIAL
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. THIS NEARLY COAST-TO-COAST WARM SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED
BY THE MAJORITY OF TOOLS. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MAINLAND WITH MOSTLY NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MAINLAND. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE
ENHANCED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE ALEUTIANS.
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE TOOLS TODAY IS THE REASON
BEHIND THE VERY MODEST TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES THAT ARE DEPICTED. IN HAWAII,
AS WAS THE CASE DURING THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN WEEK-2 BASED ON DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS AND ALASKA DURING WEEK-2 WITH LIMITED SUPPORT FOR ABOVE OR BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COUNTRY. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED AHEAD
AND AT THE BASE OF THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE REGION WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE A WAVE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. BEHIND THE TROUGH, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS AND MOST OF THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A TILT IN THE ODDS TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ACROSS MOST OF THE ROCKIES, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS, DAKOTAS, NEBRASKA, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION, SUPPORTED BY MANY OF THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. THIS REPRESENTS A
BROADER EXPANSE OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CONUS THAN WAS SUPPORTED YESTERDAY. IN ALASKA, A VERY WEAK
PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERN IS DEPICTED, WITH THE AUTO AND CONSOLIDATED
PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVORING A STRIPE OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ODDS FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND MOSTLY NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE AUTO AND CONSOLIDATED TOOLS
FAVORS NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWEST ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND OAHU,
AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS IS OFFSET BY REDUCED
AGREEMENT IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK AND LOWER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES AS
A PATTERN TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030516 - 19540616 - 20010516 - 19550526 - 19870531
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030516 - 19540617 - 20010518 - 19870530 - 19730522
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 11 - 15 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN N B NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 13 - 19 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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