380
FXCA20 KWBC 061409
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1009 AM EDT THU JUN 06 2024
WEEKLY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JUN 06/12UTC:
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PR/USVI...BUT
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SOME SAHARAN DUST STARTS MOVING IN. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR TO JUST
BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS
TIME...TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAINFALL OVER PR/USVI...THEN POSSIBLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A SFC TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PR...AS
WELL AS A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. THERE
IS ALSO A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THESE
FEATURES...COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BRINGING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PR/USVI TODAY. HOWEVER...THE DRIER AIR WITH
SAHARAN DUST WILL BE MOVING IN THIS EVENING...CAUSING THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO DECREASE QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PRESENCE OF THE
DRIER AIR WILL COINCIDE WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES
OVER THE AREA..PROMOTING A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.
THEREFORE...MAINLY BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE USVI
WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH WESTERN PR
HAVING A CHANCE OF LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOONS. AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND THE USVI COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION...WESTERN PR COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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