898
FXUS06 KWBC 061902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JUNE 06 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 12 - 16 2024
THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN (CMCE) PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHTS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER FOR A ROBUST MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND TROUGH
ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) RESPECTIVELY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. TOOLS THEN BEGIN TO FORECAST A QUICK TRANSITION OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST FILLING IN. A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TOWARDS THE
WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. IN ALASKA, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVERSPREAD THE STATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN HAWAII, SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
IN THE EASTERN CONUS, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES HAVE BEEN ELIMINATED AND
A BROAD AREA OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS NOW FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM MORE LIKELY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. ACROSS THE WEST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER, IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, FALLING
HEIGHTS FROM THE TROUGH INITIALLY ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA, WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN ALASKA, RISING 500-HPA
HEIGHTS BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
ENVELOP THE STATE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE LINGERING COLD CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COAST AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS, ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS FLORIDA, WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO ELEVATE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. UNCALIBRATED TOTALS FROM THE ECENS AND GEFS RANGE FROM 2-4+ INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD. ODDS FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 60% IN SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. A SMALL LINGERING CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UNDERCUTS THE
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AS THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS BEHIND ANY LINGERING
COLD FRONTS FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, RISING 500-HPA HEIGHTS SHOULD FURTHER REDUCE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. IN ALASKA, THE AUTO AND CONSOLIDATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS
DEPICT ODDS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY TILTED TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
OF THE STATE, WITH MOSTLY NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREAS. FOR HAWAII, THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN AUTO AND
CONSOLIDATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS IS OFFSET BY
TECHNICAL ISSUES IN RETRIEVING MODEL TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 14 - 20 2024
THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 IS TRANSITIONING TOWARDS RIDGING ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, AND TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. IN ALASKA, NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST WITH RIDGING TRYING TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN
HAWAII, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER THE VICINITY OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DUE TO A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, HOWEVER, HAS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING WEEK-2. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WITH A +60 METER HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED ON THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60%
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS NEARLY COAST-TO-COAST WARM SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE
MAJORITY OF TOOLS. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MAINLAND WITH MOSTLY NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MAINLAND. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE ENHANCED
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. NOTABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS
TEMPERATURE TOOLS TODAY IS THE REASON BEHIND THE VERY MODEST TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES THAT ARE DEPICTED. IN HAWAII, AS WAS THE CASE DURING THE EARLIER
6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN WEEK-2 BASED
ON DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS AND ALASKA DURING WEEK-2 WITH LIMITED SUPPORT FOR ABOVE OR BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COUNTRY. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED AHEAD
AND AT THE BASE OF THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE REGION WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE A WAVE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND MOST OF THE NORTHEAST
AS RISING HEIGHTS AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE IS
A TILT IN THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ACROSS MOST OF THE ROCKIES,
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, DAKOTAS, NEBRASKA, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, SUPPORTED BY MANY OF THE PRECIPITATION
TOOLS. IN ALASKA, A VERY WEAK PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERN IS DEPICTED, WITH
THE HIGHEST ANOMALIES FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF THE MAINLAND,
WHERE THE ALASKA CONVECTIVE SEASON HAS RECENTLY INITIATED. MOSTLY NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ELSEWHERE. FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE AUTO AND CONSOLIDATED TOOLS FAVORS NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NORTHWEST ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND OAHU, AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW-AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS IS OFFSET BY
TECHNICAL ISSUES IN RETRIEVING MODEL TOOLS
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19600530 - 20010517 - 19730606 - 19540616 - 19520527
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20010518 - 20030516 - 19600529 - 19540617 - 19520526
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 12 - 16 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN N B NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 14 - 20 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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