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FXUS06 KWBC 071913
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JUNE 07 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 13 - 17 2024
A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST
FOR AREAS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS TO MAINTAIN A WEAK TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION FROM THE ECENS AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW FROM THE GEFS AND CMCE.
IN ALASKA, MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST.
NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
IN THE EASTERN CONUS, A RAPID WARM-UP CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST IN THE 6-10 DAY
FORECAST TODAY. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE NOW FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE COUNTRY WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS BY THE END OF WEEK-1. THERE ARE SLIGHTLY REDUCED PROBABILITIES IN PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LINGERING
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE ARE
QUICKLY SUPPLANTED BY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE FORECAST AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE. BELOW-NORMAL REMAINS FAVORED IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. IN HAWAII, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED CONSISTENT
WITH A BLEND OF MODEL TOOLS AND RAW MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE ONE OR MORE
WAVES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS FLORIDA, WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO
ELEVATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. UNCALIBRATED TOTALS FROM THE ECENS AND GEFS
RANGE FROM 2-4+ INCHES FOR THE PERIOD. ODDS FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
EXCEED 50% IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN THE
NORTHWEST AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER. IN THE UPPER-MIDWEST AT THE APEX OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE,
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. BENEATH THE RIDGE, ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED.
NEAR-NORMAL IS MOST LIKELY IN THE DRIER REGIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN
ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN MAINLAND WHERE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST WHILE WEAK CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR. FOR HAWAII,
THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN A BLEND OF MODEL TOOLS AND RAW MODEL
PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 50% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS IS OFFSET BY A WEAK
SUMMER PRECIPITATION PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 15 - 21 2024
MID-LEVEL RIDGES AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN ALASKA INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. ALONG THE WEST COAST, NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS LEAD TO A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING. WHILE IN HAWAII, NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER THE VICINITY OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DUE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGHING FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MOST
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, HOWEVER, HAS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING WEEK-2. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WITH A +60 METER HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED ON THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60% FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS NEARLY COAST-TO-COAST WARM SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY OF
TOOLS. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN MOST OF THE
MAINLAND. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE FAVORED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
AND THE ALEUTIANS. IN HAWAII, AS WAS THE CASE DURING THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN WEEK-2 BASED ON THE
BLEND OF MODELS AND RAW MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA DURING WEEK-2. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN
THE NORTHWEST AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. FURTHER
EAST, ABOVE-NORMAL CHANCES ARE FURTHER ENHANCED IN THE UPPER-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE PICKING UP ON LOCALIZED
MESOCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEVELOPMENT WHICH WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH
THIS PATTERN. ALONG THE GULF COAST, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED AS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC BENEATH
THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL IS FAVORED IN THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. EASTERN INTERIOR ALASKA HAS SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS,
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ISLANDS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MODEL TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 50% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS IS OFFSET BY A
WEAK SUMMER PRECIPITATION PATTERN.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19600530 - 20050521 - 20010520 - 19520527 - 19830614
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20010519 - 19600530 - 20050524 - 19520526 - 19550605
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 13 - 17 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 15 - 21 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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