794
FXUS01 KWBC 090756
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EDT SUN JUN 09 2024
VALID 12Z SUN JUN 09 2024 - 12Z TUE JUN 11 2024
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...
..THERE ARE HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TO OFF MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL AID IN CREATING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. FURTHERMORE, MANY STREAMS MAY
FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, TENNESSEE
VALLEY, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
MEANWHILE, A FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INLAND TO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY, THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA,
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA, AND EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
FURTHER, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CAUSE HEAVY RAIN
TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION, THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH
HEAVY RAIN.
FURTHERMORE, ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
ELSEWHERE, TROPICAL MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL AID IN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA
FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
MOREOVER, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WILL
HELP PRODUCE RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS
HELPS SPAWN HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS.
ZIEGENFELDER
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