780
FXUS01 KWBC 110803
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2024
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 11 2024 - 12Z THU JUN 13 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS/WATCHES AND HEAT ADVISORIES
OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, SOUTHWEST, AND WESTERN TEXAS ON
TUESDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE THE EASTERN PORTION QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME, THE WESTERN HALF DISSIPATES
ON WEDNESDAY. THE HALF OF THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL AID IN
CREATING SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
FURTHERMORE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST
VULNERABLE. ALSO, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
IN ADDITION, THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP DEVELOP
RAIN WITH DAYTIME-EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ON TUESDAY, THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
ON WEDNESDAY, MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CREATE
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. MOREOVER, THERE WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT OF HAIL, TWO
INCHES OR GREATER, OVER THE REGION. FURTHER, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY, AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO, PROMPTING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AND
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES IN WESTERN TEXAS. RESIDENTS AND INDIVIDUALS
INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES MUST STAY INFORMED AND TAKE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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