591
FXUS01 KWBC 111857
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2024
VALID 00Z WED JUN 12 2024 - 00Z FRI JUN 14 2024
...A PROLONGED HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MID-WEEK...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS/WATCHES AND HEAT ADVISORIES
OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, SOUTHWEST, AND WESTERN TEXAS ON
TUESDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING'S
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, WHERE A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT, WILL
GO ON TO REINFORCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA THIS
WEEK. THE SEVERE THREAT IN TEXAS WILL BE RELATED TO A MCS THAT
WILL PROPAGATE INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS WILL BE A SEVERE-WIND RISK. MID-LEVEL ENERGY CYCLING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A PARENT LOW WILL INFLUENCE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. SLIGHT RISKS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE AREAS, WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. A FEW
TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO
THE HAIL AND WINDS.
MEANWHILE, A QUASI STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WITH EMERGING AND
RETROGRADING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A PROLONGED HEAVY
TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS OTHER
PARTS OF THE STATE TO A LESSER EXTENT. SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING
WELL OVER 7 INCHES OF RAIN.
ELSEWHERE, UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHILE A
MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL SUPPORT
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADING TO ANOMALOUSLY MILD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S TO 100S WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF CALIFORNIA'S CENTRAL VALLEY, THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT RELIEF, AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO,
WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING/HYDRATION. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS WILL MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK.
KEBEDE
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page