575
FXUS06 KWBC 111902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUNE 11 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 17 - 21 2024
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE
PATTERN WITH A 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND A
BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC. THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA
TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
STRONG RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES INCREASE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS. THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES (ABOVE 80 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHERE THE ECENS AND CME DEPICT 5-DAY
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING MORE THAN 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DEPICT THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH 500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 588 DAM OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BY DAY 9, JUNE 20.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR EASTERLY WAVES AND/OR A TROPICAL CYCLONE
TRACKING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING MID TO LATE JUNE. REGARDLESS OF
ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, THE GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO HAVE AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE GEFS AND ECENS DIFFER ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE ECENS MUCH FURTHER WEST
TOWARDS THE TEXAS GULF COAST, SOUTH OF GALVESTON. THE MOST ENHANCED
ABOVE-NORMAL PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS GULF
COASTS AND THEIR INLAND AREAS. THE TROUGHING ALOFT FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EAST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE 500-HPA RIDGE AXIS, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN
TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SLIGHT WET TILT IS
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHERE ENHANCED GULF MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTHWEST FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THERE IS AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION.
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
AND GENERALLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT ALASKA EXCEPT FOR THE
ALEUTIANS. PRECIPITATION TOOLS OFFER RELATIVELY WEAK SIGNALS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARDS DRY (WET) FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN (NORTHEASTERN)
ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: FORECAST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN AND OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 19 - 25 2024
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA
TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WHILE THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXPANDS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE ECENS CONTINUES TO FEATURE THE
STRONGEST RIDGING WITH 500-HPA HEIGHTS PEAKING NEAR OR ABOVE 594 DAM ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN WEEK-2. BASED ON THE PREDICTED LONGWAVE PATTERN,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS. THE LARGEST
PROBABILITIES (ABOVE 80 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES WHERE THE GREATEST 500-HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES ARE PREDICTED.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER ACROSS TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA DUE TO THE INCREASED CHANCE OF ENHANCED RAINFALL AND CLOUDINESS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR ALONG AND INLAND OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH WEEK-2, AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE GULF COAST
REGION. ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES EXTEND NORTHWEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS ENHANCED GULF MOISTURE MAY SPREAD THAT FAR INLAND
AND THERE COULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPANDING RIDGE FAVOR A
SWATH OF INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EAST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN
BETWEEN THOSE FAVORED WET AREAS OF THE CONUS, PRECIPITATION TOOLS DEPICT WEAK
OR CONFLICTING SIGNALS AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MANY AREAS
SUCH AS THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST. BASED ON THE UNCALIBRATED
GEFS AND ECENS AND ANALOG TOOL DERIVED FROM THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND,
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPANDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
MAINLAND ALASKA DUE TO POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. PRECIPITATION TOOLS
OFFER RELATIVELY WEAK SIGNALS WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FORECAST FOR EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECMWF MODELS, NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE, 3
OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY LESS
AGREEMENT AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS ALONG WITH LOWER PREDICTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE RAINFALL.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030530 - 19990523 - 20050529 - 19890611 - 19790523
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030530 - 19990523 - 19890612 - 19840623 - 20050528
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 17 - 21 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH N N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 19 - 25 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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