257
FXUS01 KWBC 120800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2024
VALID 12Z WED JUN 12 2024 - 12Z FRI JUN 14 2024
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY,
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, SOUTHWEST, AND WESTERN TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND GREAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
THEN WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL
3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE
AN ADDED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER
MINNESOTA TO NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
FURTHERMORE, A STATIONARY FRONT WITH WAVES WILL EXTEND ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST, AND THE COMBINATION OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER FLORIDA WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST
VULNERABLE. ALSO, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
FURTHERMORE, A COLD POOL OF AIR OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL TRIGGER
DAYTIME SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
ON THURSDAY, THE MIDWEST FRONT WILL MOVE OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY, CREATING SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, THE
SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
IN ADDITION, THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ELSEWHERE, ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER CALIFORNIA AND
THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL FORM OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO, LEADING TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT
ADVISORIES OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AND
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES IN WESTERN TEXAS. IT IS CRUCIAL FOR
RESIDENTS AND INDIVIDUALS INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO STAY
INFORMED AND TAKE IMMEDIATE AND NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page