998
FXCA20 KWBC 121726
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
125 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 12 JUN 2024 AT 1720 UTC:
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN IN MEXICO CONTINUES. ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO STIMULATE DEEP LAYER CONVECTION IN MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. IN THE MID-LEVELS...A
PRONOUNCED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST USA INTO THE
TEHUANTEPEC/CHIVELA PASS REGION IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS
REGION IS FAVORING TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. GIVEN HIGH VALUES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND GDI...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN
THESE REGIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS
CENTRAL AMERICA...WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
CONFIDENCE ON THE REGIONS WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED IS LIMITED UNDER THIS KIND OF SCENARIO...YET...AREAS AT
HIGHER RISK ARE LOCATED WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE
CONTINENT AND WHERE ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS CONVERGE AND INTERACT
WITH ELEVATED TERRAIN.
IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION...ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
CLUSTERING BETWEEN EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN HONDURAS INTO SOUTHERN
CHIAPAS...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA IN THE ORDER OF 40-80MM/DAY. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
IN COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...AS IN
NORTHERN GUATEMALA. ON FRIDAY EXPECT THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS TO
CLUSTER IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND CAMPECHE/TABASCO IN
MEXICO...WHERE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO REACH MAXIMA OF 75-125MM WITH
AN ENHANCED RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. IN CHIAPAS AND
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON FRIDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM CLUSTERING IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. IN EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...PROXIMITY OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND DEVELOPING WESTERLIES WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. HOWEVER...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PACIFIC
BASINS OF WEST PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AS ENHANCED WESTERLIES
DEVELOP. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 75-150MM. IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
AND EAST PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM...WHILE IN CENTRAL
PANAMA AND GUNA YALA EXPECT MAXIMA IN THE ORDER OF 25-50MM.
IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...PROXIMITY TO THE MOIST PLUME THAT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS FLORIDA WILL FAVOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
AND MARGINAL RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
THIS DECREASES TO MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...THE
INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND AN ANTICYCLONICALLY
CURVED UPPER JET WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A ZONALLY-ORIENTED
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS LIMITING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE TO NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. THIS ASSOCIATES WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
ACCORDINGLY...EXPECT LIMITED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE.
MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ITCZ/NET...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER CLOSE/JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GUIANAS INTO
VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE ACTIVITY WILL PLAY A ROLE IN ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION. ONE WEDNESDAY A MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN PORTION OF
WESTERN VENEZUELA...SURINAME...FRENCH GUIANA... IS EXPECTED. ON
THURSDAY A MAXIMA OF 40 -80 IN SOUTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. ON
FRIDAY... INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ WILL
FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN GUYANA...SOUTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
CLARKE (CINWS)
FERNANDER (BDM)
LEDESMA (WPC)
GALVEZ (WPC)
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