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FXUS06 KWBC 121902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JUNE 12 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 18 - 22 2024
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ANOMALOUS 500-HPA
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) WITH THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH WEAKENING OVER THE WEST. THE ECENS REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH
THE 500-HPA RIDGE AND DEPICTS HEIGHTS INCREASING TO AT OR EVEN ABOVE 594 DAM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC ON DAY 8, JUNE 20. THE TIMING ON WHEN
THIS RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK STRENGTH IS CONSISTENT DATING BACK SEVERAL DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THE GEFS AND CMCE ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE, ALL
DEPICT 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF MORE THAN 60 METERS WHICH IS SUBSTANTIAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONG RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS. THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES (ABOVE 80 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHERE THE ECENS AND CMCE DEPICT
5-DAY TEMPERATURES AVERAGING MORE THAN 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REDUCED ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS DUE
TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ENHANCED RAINFALL. AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD
TILTS THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND GREAT BASIN.
PRIOR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN, THE GEFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECENS SOLUTION WITH
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TEXAS GULF COAST, SOUTH OF GALVESTON. THE
6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK REFLECTS THIS MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WITH ITS
LARGEST ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES (50 TO 70 PERCENT).
PRECIPITATION TOOLS CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE
GULF COAST. THE TROUGHING ALOFT FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EAST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND TO THE NORTH OF THE 500-HPA RIDGE AXIS, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SLIGHT WET TILT IS FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WHERE ENHANCED GULF MOISTURE MAY SPREAD NORTHWEST FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND THERE IS AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT A COMPLICATED LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH A CLOSED 500-HPA LOW
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, A WEAK RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA,
AND A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH SLOPE
OF ALASKA. THESE LONGWAVE FEATURES COMBINE TOGETHER AND LEAD TO LOWER 500-HPA
HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT ALASKA COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THEREFORE, THE COVERAGE
AND PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE DECREASED IN THE 6-10 DAY
OUTLOOK. PRECIPITATION TOOLS OFFER RELATIVELY WEAK SIGNALS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARDS A DRY (WET) FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN (CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN) ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: FORECAST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY ON THE
EVOLVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 20 - 26 2024
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF WEEK-2 AS A
BROAD ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE CONUS WITH THE
LARGEST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND
MID-ATLANTIC. BEYOND DAY 11 (JUNE 23), ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. DESPITE INCREASING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE
IN WEEK-2, THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS +30 TO +60 METER HEIGHT
DEPARTURES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE CONUS WHICH SUPPORTS ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY FOR THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY DUE TO PREDICTED ENHANCED RAINFALL AND CLOUDINESS AND THAT IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BASED ON THE GEFS
REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECENS MODELS.
AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, THE GEFS AND ECENS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN
EASTERLY WAVE OR TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKING NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS WHICH
SUPPORTS ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. BASED ON THE
REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED TOOLS, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
THE ENTIRE GULF COAST REGION. ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
EXTEND NORTHWEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS ENHANCED GULF MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD THAT FAR INLAND AND THERE COULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
EXPANDING RIDGE FAVOR A SWATH OF INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EAST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TOOLS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WETTER FOR
UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN BETWEEN THOSE FAVORED WET AREAS
OF THE CONUS, PRECIPITATION TOOLS DEPICT WEAK OR CONFLICTING SIGNALS AND NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MANY AREAS SUCH AS THE OHIO VALLEY. BASED
ON THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECENS MODEL OUTPUT, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC.
DUE TO LOWER 500-HPA HEIGHTS COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO DAYS, THE COVERAGE FOR
FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS REDUCED ACROSS ALASKA. PRECIPITATION TOOLS
OFFER RELATIVELY WEAK SIGNALS WITH AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE AND 500-HPA HEIGHT
PATTERN. THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECMWF MODELS, NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE, 3
OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY LESS
AGREEMENT AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS ALONG WITH LOWER PREDICTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE RAINFALL.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030530 - 19990524 - 19940610 - 19790524 - 19610623
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030530 - 19990523 - 20060618 - 20030525 - 19890613
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 18 - 22 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A N
UTAH N N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 20 - 26 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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