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FXUS01 KWBC 122010
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
409 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2024
VALID 00Z THU JUN 13 2024 - 00Z SAT JUN 15 2024
...THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY...
...THERE'S AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST, AND WESTERN TEXAS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY BISECTING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A COMPLEX OF STORMS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WILL PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING. STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE KEYS
TONIGHT BEFORE RELOADING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SLIGHT RISKS (AT LEAST 15%) IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPGRADES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DIGGING MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE SOMEWHERE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN IOWA, NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/INDIANA. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND PUSH
FARTHER INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE'S AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IOWA, NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL, DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS VORT MAX WILL SHIFT THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHERE SCATTERED STORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING JUST OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN/BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON
THURSDAY BEFORE INFLUENCING MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS FRIDAY. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE
ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT EVENING.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL DEGRADE AND SHIFT EASTWARD
AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT, PARTICULARLY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AS WELL AS CALIFORNIA'S CENTRAL VALLEY, WHERE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNINGS AND WATCHES WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT. ANOMALOUS
TEMPS SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS
WEEK BENEATH THE RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME, EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN TEXAS.
KEBEDE
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