846
FXUS01 KWBC 130758
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2024
VALID 12Z THU JUN 13 2024 - 12Z SAT JUN 15 2024
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND PLUS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA ON THURSDAY AND A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS/WATCHES AND ADVISORIES OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THEN WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST COAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND WESTWARD
TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION,
THERE WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WIND GUSTS
OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY. FURTHER, THERE WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, TWO
INCHES OR GREATER, FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY.
ON FRIDAY, THE BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, AND A MINIMAL
THREAT OF TORNADOES/ HAIL.
IN ADDITION, ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. FURTHERMORE, THERE WILL BE AN
ADDED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR
GREATER FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ON FRIDAY, THERE WILL ALSO
BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE, ON THURSDAY, A STATIONARY FRONT WITH WAVES WILL EXTEND
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND THE
COMBINATION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK
(LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING. FURTHERMORE, MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
ON FRIDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
ELSEWHERE, ON FRIDAY, A FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVE INLAND TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE
GREAT BASIN, AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. MOREOVER,
ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.
MOREOVER, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN, LEADING TO EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS/WATCHES AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. RESIDENTS AND
INDIVIDUALS INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES MUST STAY INFORMED AND
TAKE IMMEDIATE AND NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
ZIEGENFELDER
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HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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