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FXUS06 KWBC 131902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JUNE 13 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 19 - 23 2024
DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE 500-HPA HEIGHT
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AT THE OUTSET OF THE
PERIOD, HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE
0Z ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE INDICATING 500-HPA HEIGHTS NEAR OR GREATER THAN 594
DAM OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST. TROUGHING IS
INITIALLY FAVORED ACROSS THE WEST, WITH THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FORECAST TO
DE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS BY DAY-10, RESULTING IN WEAKENING POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES IN THE EAST AND INCREASING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE WEST.
TODAY’S MANUAL 6-10 DAY HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EAST OF
THE ROCKIES, WITH A MAXIMA OF +150 METERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. NEAR NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN THE TRANSITIONAL PATTERN. NEAR- TO
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED OVER MOST OF ALASKA UNDERNEATH WEAK TROUGHING
OVER THE BERING SEA AND PARTS OF THE MAINLAND DURING THE PERIOD.
STRONG RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FAVOR HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS. THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES (ABOVE 90 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHERE THE ECENS AND CMCE DEPICT 5-DAY
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING MORE THAN 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REDUCED ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS DUE TO
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ENHANCED RAINFALL. AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD
TILTS THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST AS THE RIDGING EXPANDS WESTWARD WITH TIME. OVER
ALASKA, WEAK TROUGHING FAVORS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA INCLUDING THE ALEUTIANS, WITH
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES INCREASED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE. ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED ACROSS
HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOL.
PRIOR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR BAY OF CAMPECHE, WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER DESIGNATING A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ALONG MUCH OF THE GULF COAST, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS (SOUTH OF GALVESTON). THE 6-10 DAY
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK REFLECTS THIS MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WITH ITS LARGEST
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES (50 TO 70 PERCENT) OVER SOUTH TEXAS,
AND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTENDING TO THE
FOUR CORNERS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS THIS ENHANCED MOISTURE SPREADS
FURTHER INLAND LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. TROUGHING ALOFT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EAST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS FAVOR A TILT
TOWARD ELEVATED BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
500-HPA RIDGE AXIS, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNDERNEATH THE RIDGING IN
THE EAST, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK TROUGHING
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA DURING THE PERIOD GENERALLY FAVORS ELEVATED NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING A HEAT WAVE OVER THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD, OFFSET
BY SOME INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARD DAY-10.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 21 - 27 2024
THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DURING WEEK-2 AS THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE
IN THE EAST ALONG WITH WEAK TROUGHING LINGERING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND SOME
EXPANSION OF THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
WHILE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING
THE PERIOD, THEY ARE NOTABLY WEAKER THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER THE EAST
AS ENSEMBLE VARIABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE GEFS BEING THE
MOST PRONOUNCED DEPICTING CLOSER TO NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BY THE END OF
WEEK-2, WHILE THE ECENS MAINTAINS WEAKLY POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE MANUAL
HEIGHT BLEND FOR WEEK-2 DEPICTS WEAKLY POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CONUS, WITH A MAXIMA OF +60 METERS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST,
AND A SMALL REGION OF NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER ALASKA AS TROUGHING AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR AN EXPANSION OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE.
DUE TO THE BROAD COVERAGE OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (ABOVE 70 PERCENT) ARE HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST TIED TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FORECAST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE FAVORS
DECREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COMPARED TO FURTHER NORTH, WITH NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BASED ON THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS
AND ECENS MODELS AS WELL AS THE ANALOGS. SIGNALS REMAIN WEAK ACROSS ALASKA,
WITH THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS, ALONG WITH UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE,
SUPPORTING A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD INCREASED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, WESTERN MAINLAND, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ELEVATED NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED OVER THE REST OF THE STATE
GIVEN INCREASING POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS HAWAII.
AS IN THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING INCREASED
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST, PARTICULARLY OVER TEXAS, SUPPORTING
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION INTO WEEK-2 WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) OVER EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS. ELEVATED
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES EXTEND NORTHWEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AS ENHANCED GULF MOISTURE MAY SPREAD THAT FAR INLAND AND THERE COULD BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC, WHERE THE GEFS BRINGS MORE OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE IN WEEK-2 GIVEN ITS DEPICTION OF LOWER MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS COMPARED TO THE ECENS. PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WELCOME IN THESE AREAS
GIVEN THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE DAYS PRIOR, BUT THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THESE AREAS DURING WEEK-2.
GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES, A BROAD AREA OF NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
HIGHLIGHTED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE FAVOR
A SWATH OF INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EAST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
DECREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE ALSO FAVORS A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THESE
AREAS. PRECIPITATION TOOLS OFFER RELATIVELY WEAK SIGNALS WITH AN ILL-DEFINED
SURFACE AND 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN. THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH
OF MAINLAND ALASKA. BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATED FORECAST TOOL, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PATTERN EVOLUTION, OFFSET BY MORE UNCERTAINTY RELATED
TO A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE EAST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030530 - 19940610 - 19990524 - 20060618 - 20010528
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20060619 - 20030530 - 20070617 - 19870604 - 19960603
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 19 - 23 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA N B
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 21 - 27 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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