589
FXUS01 KWBC 131954
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2024
VALID 00Z FRI JUN 14 2024 - 00Z SUN JUN 16 2024
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT...
...THERE ARE SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS/WATCHES AND ADVISORIES OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
IN FLORIDA, ONGOING ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING JUST IN TIME FOR THE
WEEKEND. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL CONTINUE
FOCUSING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT,
WHEN STORMS WILL BRING SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL, IN SOME
CASES, OVER THE VERY SATURATED AND VULNERABLE SOILS/SURFACES AND
URBAN AREAS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THERE IS NOW A HIGH RISK (AT
LEAST 70%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
FROM NAPLES TO FORT LAUDERDALE AND DOWN TO MIAMI. THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A MARGINAL RISK
(AT LEAST 5%) IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO IMPROVE.
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL DEGRADE INTO AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WHILE IT SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 2/5) OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO,
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
COMPLEX OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE INTO THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST THAT EVENING.
TONIGHT, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FLARE UP ALONG A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT
COULD PROMOTE ENHANCED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES. THUS, A SLIGHT RISK
(AT LEAST 15%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST, FROM SOUTHEASTERN
IOWA/NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSER TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE IN
CERTAIN SPOTS. EXCESSIVE HEAT CONCERNS WILL WANE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS INTO
THE PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE. THE NEWLY DEVELOPING RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL INCREASE EXCESSIVE HEAT THREATS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEBEDE
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