998
FXUS01 KWBC 140905
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
503 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024
VALID 12Z FRI JUN 14 2024 - 12Z SUN JUN 16 2024
...A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA TODAY BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SLOWLY
DIMINISHES THIS WEEKEND...
...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER...
...A ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT, SPREADING NORTHEAST TO REACH
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...
...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SUNDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT REMAINS A CONCERN FROM PORTIONS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., PULLING THE AXIS
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME AND THE TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY TOUCH OFF
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
ALREADY SATURATED AND VULNERABLE SOILS/SURFACES AND URBAN AREAS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL BE SENSITIVE TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, WHERE A
MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES TODAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN THE
FORECAST. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE COUNTRY IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND.
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, EVEN WITH A
CHANCE OF WET SNOW OVER THE HIGH-ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING MORE ROUNDS OF ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE, EXCESSIVE HEAT CONCERNS
WILL WANE OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AS A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEHIND A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MOISTURE
PLUME WILL THEN LIFT FARTHER NORTHEAST TO BRING A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT UP TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY, BEFORE CROSSING
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, NORTHERN WISCONSIN, AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN IOWA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO PUSH THE HEAT IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND QUICKLY
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA EARLY ON
SUNDAY WITH BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS USHERING IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM.
KONG
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