374
FXUS01 KWBC 141921
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
320 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024
VALID 00Z SAT JUN 15 2024 - 00Z MON JUN 17 2024
...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD RISKS SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND...
...ABOVE AVERAGE SUMMER HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER BEFORE EXPANDING INTO THE MIDWEST BY SUNDAY...
A SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN RIPE FOR MID-JUNE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS CONUS, WITH SCATTERED AREAS AT RISK FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND BUILDING HEAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A FEW DAYS OF DRENCHING RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, LINGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD SPAWN SCATTERED INSTANCES OF RENEWED
FLOODING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND. THIS SAME PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SUNDAY AND
COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON HAS LED TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CONTAIN INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND GUSTY
WINDS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD TURN SEVERE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE BY EARLY
SATURDAY. FOLLOWING THIS COLD FRONT, A REFRESHINGLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE SHOULD LEAD TO BEAUTIFUL WEATHER THIS FATHER'S DAY WEEKEND
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND OHIO VALLEY.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO
ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPARK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
CAPABLE OF LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. AFTER WEAKENING OVERNIGHT,
THESE SHOWERS COULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SATURDAY, WITH
REDEVELOPING STORMS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING BETWEEN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. ADDITIONALLY, THE TRAILING AND STRONGER SYSTEM
ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL HELP PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTH DAKOTA. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO BISECT THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS, CREATING
A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE OTHER MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE SIMMERING
HEAT IMPACTING AREAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH UPPER 90S STRETCHING
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ENCOMPASSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY, AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S., WITH ANOMALOUS HEAT STARTING IN MUCH OF THE MIDWEST,
CENTRAL PLAINS, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S, WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES. WHEN
COMBINED WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS, MAJOR HEAT RISK COULD AFFECT
ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. BE
SURE TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND FOLLOW PROPER HEAT SAFETY!
SNELL
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