564
FXUS01 KWBC 160837
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2024
VALID 12Z SUN JUN 16 2024 - 12Z TUE JUN 18 2024
...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...LATE-SEASON WET SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
...A HEAT WAVE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS TODAY, INTO THE
GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY, AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY...
...A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SHIFTING TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF COAST BY
TUESDAY...
AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS FAIR WEATHER AND A FRESH DOSE OF
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND, A HEAT WAVE IS EMERGING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX CONTAINING SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA TODAY BUT ADDITIONAL JET STREAM ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL HELP DEVELOP A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AND EXPAND THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, AND HEADING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THIS ROUND OF INCLEMENT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AFTER
THE LATEST ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAME AREA EARLY THIS MORNING DIMINISHES AND
MOVES EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
BY TUESDAY, YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WITH AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM
WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER A DOSE OF EVEN COLDER AIR THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHERE A ROUND OF LATE-SEASON WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER-ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE HIGHER-ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, FREEZE AND FROST
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING QUITE A BIT OF
WIND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY,
REACHING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INTENSIFIES AND HEADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A
RENEWED ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE SAME GENERAL REGION OF UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING, WHERE A MODERATE RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.
IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE COOL/COLD, WINDY, AND EVEN SNOWY WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, A HEAT WAVE IS QUICKLY EMERGING AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST, AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HEAT WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHEAST BY
TUESDAY WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 90S ARE FORECAST
AS FAR NORTH AS VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
FARTHER SOUTH FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LURKING
ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BEGIN TO HEAD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MOISTURE PLUME ARE EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN FIRST ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADUALLY
FALLS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
KONG
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