330
FXUS01 KWBC 181953
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
352 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2024
VALID 00Z WED JUN 19 2024 - 00Z FRI JUN 21 2024
...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING THREAT WITH GUSTY WINDS
WELL AHEAD OF POTENTIAL T.C. ONE EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN TEXAS
ON WEDNESDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT...
...A HEAT WAVE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY AND
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...
POTENTIAL T.C. ONE WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT, WHILE IT SLOWLY APPROACHES MEXICO'S NORTHEAST COAST. THIS
SYSTEM CARRIES WITH IT; COASTAL FLOODING, WIND IMPACTS, AND A
SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE, WHICH IT IS POISED TO
TRANSPORT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DOWN TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE'S A MODERATE RISK (AT LEAST
40%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING FROM THE
LOUISIANA-TEXAS COAST DOWN TO JUST NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI, TEXAS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
TONIGHT. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS ALSO IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA GULF COAST
DOWN TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. WHAT WILL THEN BE TROPICAL STORM ONE IS
FORECAST TO MAKE ITS FINAL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THAT EVENING. TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WHERE YET ANOTHER MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT. T.S. ONE WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN UPON LANDFALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CERTAINLY CONTINUE OVER THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY BEFORE RAINFALL RATES
DROP AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ALL IN ALL, POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE ONE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO TO SOUTH TEXAS, WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE SCATTERED TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS. A
FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR. RAINFALL RATES WITHIN SOME OF THESE
STORMS TO SUPPORT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WHICH IS WHY THERE IS
CURRENTLY A SLIGHT RISK IN EFFECT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEK.
WIDESPREAD DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY FOR AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS, WITH SOME MONTHLY RECORDS
POSSIBLE. HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO RELIABLE AIR
CONDITIONING ARE URGED TO FIND A WAY TO COOL DOWN. RECORD WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT NATURAL COOLING AND ALLOW THE
HEAT DANGER TO BUILD OVER TIME INDOORS WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND.
KEBEDE
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