810
FXUS06 KWBC 191902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JUNE 19 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - 29 2024
A MOSTLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE PREDICTED OVER THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) BY THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS BY ALL
OF TODAY’S ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INCREASING IN
AMPLITUDE. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF CANADA
AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. WEAK 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER ALASKA IN THE MANUAL BLEND.
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND ZONAL FLOW LEAD TO LIKELY ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR PARTS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, UNDER
A PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND
ISLANDS IN THE BERING SEA, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER INTERIOR MAINLAND
ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS, WHILE NEAR-TO-BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS OF MAINLAND ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR INTERIOR AREAS OF THE WEST, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION AND MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
HAWAII, BASED ON DYNAMICAL MODEL-BASED PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY A LESS AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION
PATTERN AND GENERALLY WEAK PRECIPITATION SIGNALS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 03, 2024
GENERALLY, A ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS IN WEEK 2,
WITH AN INCREASING AMPLITUDE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE PERIOD. NEAR-ZERO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. WEAK
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BY MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS, AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS
IN WEEK 2, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN TIER, UNDER
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND PARTS OF THE WEST COAST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER PRIMARILY NORTHERLY FLOW. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER INTERIOR AND NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, SUPPORTED
BY CALIBRATED ECMWF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR EASTERN MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR INTERIOR
AREAS OF THE WEST, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS, FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED MODEL
PRECIPITATION. MODELS CONSISTENTLY PREDICT LIKELY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
HAWAII, BASED ON DYNAMICAL MODEL-BASED PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY SMALL-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND WEAK PRECIPITATION SIGNALS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19590627 - 19940614 - 19690628 - 19530628 - 19570616
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940615 - 19590529 - 19570616 - 19840609 - 19690627
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - 29 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 03, 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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