865
FXUS01 KWBC 191957
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2024
VALID 00Z THU JUN 20 2024 - 00Z SAT JUN 22 2024
...HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING IN SOUTH TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE FOR THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
...A HEAT WAVE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND
THE NORTHEAST INTO LATE WEEK...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO HAS FORMED IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO AROUND THURSDAY
MORNING. ALBERTO WILL HAVE IMPACTS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS
NORTH OF ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION, INCLUDING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS AND STORM SURGE CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING CONCERNS. THESE HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED BY
SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE GULF COAST THAT FOCUSES THE AMPLE
TROPICAL MOISTURE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING ALONG WITH NEW AND RENEWED RIVER FLOODING. THUS A
MODERATE RISK IS IN PLACE IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY FOR
SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE ALBERTO SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND REDUCE WINDS, THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH AND TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHERE MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ARE HIGHLIGHTED. MEANWHILE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC,
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE COULD REACH NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND COASTAL GEORGIA THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING.
THOUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. IS SEEING A RELATIVE BREAK IN HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, RENEWED SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY THERE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND THE FRONT STALLING AND DRIFTING
NORTH WILL REINVIGORATE STORMS IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST. MODERATE RISKS OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, MEANING NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODS ARE LIKELY. ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS THERE ARE WET BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS RAINFALL, SO THIS
CONTRIBUTES TO FLOODING CONCERNS. FARTHER EAST, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST. MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISKS ARE DELINEATED EACH DAY FROM
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (MAINLY FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE WIND
BUT WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR HAIL), AND MARGINAL RISKS OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE IN PLACE AS WELL.
ALL THESE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM AREAS ARE TAKING PLACE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE/HEAT DOME THAT EDGES FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE MID-SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
PRODUCING A RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS AND EVEN SOME MONTHLY
AND ALL-TIME RECORDS. HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO
RELIABLE AIR CONDITIONING ARE URGED TO FIND A WAY TO COOL DOWN.
RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT NATURAL COOLING
AND ALLOW THE HEAT DANGER TO BUILD OVER TIME INDOORS WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER AND LESS HAZARDOUS CLOSER
TO THE COAST IF/WHERE SEA BREEZES FORM. BY FRIDAY, CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE OVER NEW ENGLAND BEHIND A COLD FRONT, BUT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE, COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS ARE LIKELY INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN FORECAST, BUT TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
TATE
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