569
FXHW40 KWBC 201231
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EDT THU JUN 20 2024
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JULY 2024
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES NEAR ZERO DEGREE CELSIUS WERE OBSERVED
OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND) DURING THE
PREVIOUS WEEK.
FROM JANUARY THROUGH MAY 2024, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
LIHUE AIRPORT 21.09 INCHES (130 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HONOLULU AIRPORT 9.48 INCHES (123 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
KAHULUI AIRPORT 8.85 INCHES (97 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HILO AIRPORT 47.94 INCHES (102 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) GENERALLY PREDICT NEAR-AVERAGE SSTS AROUND
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH JULY 2024. BASED PRIMARILY ON THESE SST FORECASTS,
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED TO BE EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW, NEAR, AND
ABOVE-NORMAL FOR ALL THE ISLANDS THROUGH JULY. FOR THE JULY 2024 PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOK, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED FOR ALL OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN, AS INDICATED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS, AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
LAST VESTIGES OF EL NINO OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO EC 76.2 0.4 B50 7.1 9.5 11.4
KAHULUI EC 79.2 0.4 B50 0.2 0.4 0.5
HONOLULU EC 81.4 0.5 B50 0.2 0.4 0.5
LIHUE EC 79.2 0.4 B50 1.5 1.7 1.9
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JAS 2024 - JAS 2025
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF THE LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE
CONUS AND ALASKA FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THE ENSO OUTLOOK AND OTHER CLIMATE
CONDITIONS RELEVANT TO THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE
OBSERVED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SSTS ARE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE
WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN, AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE DOMINATED
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. LOW-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE
EASTERLY OVER A SMALL REGION OF THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN,
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE NEAR AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
OCEAN. SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION WAS EVIDENT OVER PARTS OF THE
PHILIPPINES AND THE DATE LINE. LA NINA IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP WITH A 65% CHANCE
DURING JULY-SEPTEMBER AND PERSIST INTO THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER 2024-25
(ABOUT 85% CHANCE DURING NOVEMBER-JANUARY).
EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR LIHUE, HONOLULU, KAHULUI AND THE BIG ISLAND FROM JAS
(JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER) TO OND (OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER) 2024, CONSISTENT
WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME AND C3S. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER HAWAII ISLANDS
INCLUDING LIHUE, HONOLULU, KAHULUI AND THE BIG ISLAND IN NDJ
(NOVEMBER-DECEMBER-JANUARY) 2024-25, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS AND THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA) TOOL. THE FORECAST
SIGNAL WEAKENS AT LONGER LEADS, THEREFORE EC IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII BEGINNING
IN DJF (DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY) 2024-25 AND EXTENDING THROUGH LONGER LEADS.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST OVER THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND) FROM JAS 2024 TO OND
2024, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL FORECASTS. DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS, EC IS INDICATED OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BEGINNING IN NDJ
2024-25 AND CONTINUING THROUGH LONGER LEADS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2024 EC 76.1 0.4 B60 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2024 EC 76.4 0.4 B55 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2024 EC 76.2 0.4 B50 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2024 EC 75.5 0.4 B40 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2024 A40 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2025 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2025 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2025 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2025 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2025 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2025 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2025 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2025 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2024 EC 79.0 0.4 B60 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2024 EC 79.4 0.4 B55 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2024 EC 79.1 0.4 B50 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2024 EC 77.8 0.4 B40 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2024 A40 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2025 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2025 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2025 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2025 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2025 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2025 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2025 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2025 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2024 EC 81.3 0.4 B60 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2024 EC 81.7 0.4 B55 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2024 EC 81.4 0.4 B50 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2024 EC 80.0 0.4 B40 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2024 A40 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2025 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2025 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2025 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2025 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2025 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2025 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2025 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2025 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2024 EC 79.0 0.3 B60 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2024 EC 79.4 0.3 B55 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2024 EC 79.1 0.3 B50 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2024 EC 77.8 0.3 B40 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2024 A40 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2025 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2025 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2025 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2025 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2025 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2025 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2025 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2025 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1991-2020 MEANS.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL
FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL
CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU JUL 18, 2024.
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