614
FXCA20 KWBC 201314
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
913 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2024
WEEKLY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JUN 20/12UTC:
OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THE RAINFALL PATTERN OVER PR/USVI IS FORECAST
TO BE FAIRLY TYPICAL...THOUGH A BIT WETTER THAN NORMAL. THAT
IS...BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...MOSTLY IN THE
MORNING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR WOULD
OBSERVE LOCALLY INDUCED CONVECTION CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE LIKE THE WETTEST PERIOD THIS WEEK...AS A
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS.
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL ISLAND
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER HOVERING
AROUND 2 INCHES MOST OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...A PATCH OF DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
DECREASE P-WAT VALUES INTO THE NORMAL RANGE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.
ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER AIR WOULD BE VERY EARLY ON
MONDAY...AS SOME SAHARAN DUST WOULD MOVE IN...JUST AHEAD OF A
TROPICAL WAVE. FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AS A LARGE PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST MOVES INTO
THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY ONWARD. THE GENERAL WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL
EFFECTS TO CAUSE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO PROLONGED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AS THERE ARE NO STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL JETS OR
ANYTHING PARTICULARLY STRONG THAT CAUSES DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
THEREFORE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR WILL
BE LOCALLY INDUCED AND PULSE-LIKE THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THE MID LEVELS THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF PR AND A
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THERE WILL BE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY...BUT A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH OF PR EARLY NEXT WEEK...PREVAILING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
UPPER LEVELS ARE NOT TOO CONDUCIVE FOR PROLONGED THUNDERSTORM
ENHANCEMENT EITHER. THERE IS A STRONG TUTT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...A TROUGH NORTH AND EAST OF THE LEEWARDS...AND
ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BUT THESE FEATURES MAY
NOT HAVE THAT STRONG OF AN IMPACT IN TERMS OF ENHANCING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A BROAD
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS LATE THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
TILTED AXIS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...BUT ANOTHER UPPER HIGH
WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY TO MID WEEK OF
NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...WE EXPECT A RELATIVELY TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN OVER
PR/USVI...THOUGH A BIT WETTER THAN NORMAL. THE PATTERN WILL BE
THAT OF BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS USVI AND EASTERN PR...WHILE CENTRAL
TO WESTERN PR WILL HAVE LOCALLY INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE MAY BE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
CONTENT AND THE SAHARAN DUST CONCENTRATION AT THE TIME.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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