322
FXUS01 KWBC 201929
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
328 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2024
VALID 00Z FRI JUN 21 2024 - 00Z SUN JUN 23 2024
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...FOCUS FOR RECORD HOT TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY...
..HEAT BUILDING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO MADE LANDFALL IN MEXICO THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES TO SPIRAL RAINFALL INTO SOUTH TEXAS, WHICH WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ALBERTO
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AND ENERGIZE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE FOUR CORNERS
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MORE
NUMEROUS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS IN THESE
AREAS, AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GENERAL
DIRECTION OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND COASTAL GEORGIA. LOCALLY
MODEST RAINFALL WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS MAY AFFECT THIS REGION
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST, RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY TO THE NORTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ROUNDS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, OVER ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. A MODERATE RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FARTHER
EAST, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE NORTHEAST NEAR AND NORTH OF THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
THE FRONT. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE PER THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO SET RECORDS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
WITH A SHIFT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CHALLENGE AND EXCEED
DAILY RECORDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD. HEAT
INDEX READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS, AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM OHIO TO NEW
JERSEY. THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO RELIABLE AIR CONDITIONING ARE
URGED TO FIND A WAY TO COOL DOWN AS VERY WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES (ONLY IN THE 70S) WILL PREVENT NATURAL COOLING AND
ALLOW THE HEAT DANGER TO BUILD OVER TIME INDOORS WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER AND LESS HAZARDOUS AT THE
COAST IF/WHERE SEA BREEZES FORM. ON FRIDAY, COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEHIND A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT, BUT
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER
90S FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE THE
HIGHEST OBSERVED IN SEVERAL YEARS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. IN MUCH OF
THE WEST (WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST),
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP EACH DAY WITH 90S AND 100S
QUITE PREVALENT BY SATURDAY. SOME DAILY RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
CHALLENGED IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO OREGON.
FRACASSO/KONG/TATE
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