829  
FXUS01 KWBC 230801  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2024  
 
VALID 12Z SUN JUN 23 2024 - 12Z TUE JUN 25 2024  
 
...HEAT WAVE FOCUS SHIFTS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO PORTIONS OF THE  
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...  
 
...WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING,  
DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES TO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...  
   
..SEVERE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY  
 
   
..MONSOON-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE SOUTHWEST  
 
BROAD LONG-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST AND  
WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY WILL KEEP HOT SUMMER TEMPERATURES IN THE  
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST INTO THE  
UPPER-90S FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE  
GREAT BASIN AND CALIFORNIA. HUMIDITY HELPING TO PUSH HEAT INDEX  
VALUES INTO THE LOW 100S AS WELL AS WARM LOW TEMPERATURES  
GENERALLY IN THE MID-70S, PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT  
OVERNIGHT, WILL MAKE THIS HEAT MOST DANGEROUS FOR PORTIONS OF THE  
MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN  
PLAINS, WITH HEAT-RELATED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR  
SOME AREAS. NUMEROUS RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE FOR  
THE MID-ATLANTIC. IN THE WEST, HEAT-RELATED ADVISORIES/WARNINGS  
ARE ALSO IN EFFECT WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH PAST 100 OVER  
NORTHERN UTAH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INTERIOR  
CALIFORNIA. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT  
LATER SUNDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE MONDAY  
FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC, WHILE THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUE TO SIMMER. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE  
OVER THE WEST WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL  
U.S., BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S MORE BROADLY  
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
 
THE NOTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW  
PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING EASTWARD WILL BRING STORM CHANCES  
FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE  
UPPER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUNDAY WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SOME POTENTIALLY MORE  
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL FALL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK OVER  
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND  
STRONG FORCING COULD LEAD TO DOWNPOURS UPWARDS OF 2"/HOUR. A  
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN EFFECT FOR THE  
RISK OF SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION,  
STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS AS WELL AS STRONG  
INSTABILITY GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL  
PROMOTE SOME MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION  
CENTER HAS ADDED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5)  
OVER CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WHERE THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE  
FOR THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. A BROADER  
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE UPPER OHIO  
VALLEY FOR A MORE ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS  
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING DRIER  
CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY MONDAY, THOUGH SOME STORMS MAY LINGER OVER  
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  
 
TO THE WEST, AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM  
MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WEST/SOUTHERN  
CANADA SUNDAY WILL APPROACH THE UPPER-MIDWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
WARM, MOIST AIR FLOWING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP TO  
LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD  
MOVING COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS IN  
PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN FOR THE THREAT  
OF SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE CHANCE FOR SOME MORE  
WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY  
LEAD TO AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.  
MONSOON-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT  
LEAST MONDAY, WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO SOME  
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND AN ISOLATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.  
DAILY STORM CHANCES WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER FLORIDA AND SOUTH TEXAS.  
 
PUTNAM  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
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