326
FXUS01 KWBC 231936
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
335 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2024
VALID 00Z MON JUN 24 2024 - 00Z WED JUN 26 2024
...HEAT WAVE FOCUS SHIFTS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...
...THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
..SEVERE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY
..MONSOON-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE SOUTHWEST
A BROAD AND WELL ENTRENCHED UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS AROUND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PROPAGATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
ALBERTO, WILL BRING EARLY MONSOON-LIKE CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH SOME INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY OVER SLOT CANYONS AND
FAVORABLE TERRAIN. THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY WITH MARGINAL RISKS (AT LEAST 5%)
PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
ELSEWHERE, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN-CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS WILL INFLUENCE MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
(LEVEL 2/5) OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SEVERE/DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF MINNESOTA
INTO WISCONSIN. A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN,
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR AN
MCS TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/INDIANA TUESDAY MORNING, THE OUTFLOWS OF WHICH SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON EVENING CONVECTION TO TAKE PLACE AFTER
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS. THERE'S ALSO A TARGETED SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA, SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS, WHERE STORMS YIELDING HIGH RAIN RATES COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE 70S WILL BE OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN TO THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
PRODUCE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEK. TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.
KEBEDE
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