326   
FXUS01 KWBC 231936  
PMDSPD  
  
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
335 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2024  
  
VALID 00Z MON JUN 24 2024 - 00Z WED JUN 26 2024  
  
...HEAT WAVE FOCUS SHIFTS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO PORTIONS OF THE  
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...  
  
...THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF  
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...  
   
..SEVERE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY  
  
   
..MONSOON-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE SOUTHWEST  
  
A BROAD AND WELL ENTRENCHED UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN  
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE  
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS AROUND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT  
PROPAGATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE  
ALBERTO, WILL BRING EARLY MONSOON-LIKE CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST  
AND FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED TO  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH SOME INSTANCES  
OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY OVER SLOT CANYONS AND  
FAVORABLE TERRAIN. THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY WITH MARGINAL RISKS (AT LEAST 5%)  
PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK.  
  
ELSEWHERE, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN-CENTRAL  
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS WILL INFLUENCE MORE  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BEGINNING  
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
(LEVEL 2/5) OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
SEVERE/DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF MINNESOTA  
INTO WISCONSIN. A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS  
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK  
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO  
NORTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN,  
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR AN  
MCS TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN  
ILLINOIS/INDIANA TUESDAY MORNING, THE OUTFLOWS OF WHICH SHOULD SET  
THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON EVENING CONVECTION TO TAKE PLACE AFTER  
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS. THERE'S ALSO A TARGETED SLIGHT RISK OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA, SOUTHERN WISCONSIN  
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS, WHERE STORMS YIELDING HIGH RAIN RATES COULD  
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.  
  
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE  
WIDESPREAD RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE  
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE 70S WILL BE OF  
PARTICULAR CONCERN TO THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.  
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED  
AREAS. UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL  
PRODUCE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST AND  
CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEK. TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER  
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.  
  
KEBEDE  
  
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
  
 
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