303
FXUS01 KWBC 240801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2024
VALID 12Z MON JUN 24 2024 - 12Z WED JUN 26 2024
...HEAT WAVE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST, MID-SOUTH, AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...
...SEVERE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY, WITH
AN INCREASING FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR THE MIDWEST TUESDAY...
...MONSOON-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS
REGION...
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.,
BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVER THE WEEKEND, A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S.,
SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST,
MID-SOUTH, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S OVER
THE REGION, WITH LOW 100S POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY, HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH AS HIGH AS
110, PROMPTING WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORIES. MEANWHILE, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN IN THE MID- TO UPPER 70S, BRINGING
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS MORE
INTENSE HEAT EARLY IN THE SUMMER SEASON LEADS TO A HIGHER LEVEL OF
HEAT-RELATED STRESS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE OUTDOORS AND WITHOUT
RELIABLE AIR CONDITIONING AVAILABLE.
TO THE NORTH, AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING STORM CHANCES BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING. HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY, PROMPTING A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY
STORMS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. A POTENTIALLY HIGHER THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS IF ENOUGH STORMS DEVELOP AND EVOLVE INTO AN
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED, WITH AN ISOLATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TEND TO REPEAT OVER
THE SAME AREAS AS STORM MOTIONS BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE
INCREASINGLY EAST-TO-WESTWARD ORIENTED FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A
GREATER CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IN EFFECT. SOME SEVERE
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE, WITH A SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE FOR THE
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION AS AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE BRINGS MONSOON-LIKE CONDITIONS. SOME LOCALLY INTENSE
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE EXISTS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT. A FEW MORE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE, ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN AREAS AROUND
TUSCON. THE HIGHER MOISTURE, CLOUD COVER, AND STORMS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE, WITH 80S AND 90S IN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND 100S TO 110 FOR THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY 5-10 DEGREES ELSEWHERE
IN THE WEST, WITH 60S AND 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PACIFIC COAST,
70S AND 80S IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND LOW TO MID-90S FOR THE
GREAT BASIN. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-100S FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE 110S FOR THE WESTERN MOJAVE/SONORAN
DESERTS HAVE PROMPTED HEAT-RELATED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS.
ELSEWHERE, AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH UPSTATE
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORM
CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS THE COAST MONDAY
EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH, ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE-RELATED STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER FLORIDA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL COME TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
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