364
FXCA20 KWBC 241921
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
320 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 24 JUN 2024 AT 1915 UTC: ON MONDAY...A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER TEXAS AND EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...WHERE IT MEETS WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS
INTERACTION BETWEEN BOTH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS IS FAVORING UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER WEST AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WHILE NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA IS EXPERIENCING DIVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE EXPECTED
OVER MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...AS THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. IN WESTERN MEXICO...INCREASED MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...WITH WINDS FROM
THE WEST TRANSPORT THIS MOISTURE INLAND. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
REGION...HOWEVER A DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED IN
THE WESTERN SIDE OF MEXICO...AND THUS A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 35-70MM FROM NAYARIT INTO NORTHERN GUERRERO. ALONG THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL...EXPECT MAXIMA TO 45MM. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THE SOUTH AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO SEE GENERALIZED MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. ON WEDNESDAY...MAXIMA OF 20-50MM IS FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...INTO PUEBLA...AND NORTHERN OAXACA.
TO THE WEST...A TUTT IS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SOME CONVECTION ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 50MM. OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...A POTENT SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...EXPECTED TO INHIBIT CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY CONVECTION OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS IS LOW.
ON MONDAY...THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-45MM WITH MARGINAL RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM. ON
TUESDAY...THE NORTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM...WHILE EASTERN CUBA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. A
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OVER THE
NORTH-WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO REMAIN BELOW 20MM.
OF INTEREST ARE THE ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVES AND TROUGHS OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND INTO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ON
MONDAY...THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE PRECIPITATIONS
OVER REGIONS IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA...AND VENEZUELA...TRINIDAD...AND
GUYANA. GUATEMALA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE WESTERN
VENEZUELA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...SAND EAST
VENEZUELA...CENTRAL GUAYANA...AND TRINIDAD CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. AN ENHANCED PANAMANIAN TROUGH OVER PANAMA AND WESTERN
COLOMBIA IS OF NOTE...AND LOCALIZED MAXIMA HIGHER THAN 20-45MM ARE
EXPECTED IN PANAMA. ON TUESDAY...SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS
EXPECTED TO SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION WHILE THERE ARE
NO TROPICAL WAVES EXPECTED. FROM EL SALVADOR TO WESTERN NICARAGUA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM DUE TO THE MOISTURE PLUME THAT
REMAINS. IN NORTHEAST VENEZUELA...TRAILING MOISTURE FROM A
TROPICAL WAVE AND AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH TRIGGERS TO POTENTIAL FOR
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. THIS SAME TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM IN WESTERN VENEZUELA. IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA...WESTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE PASSING OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 35-70MM. WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO PANAMA AND COLOMBIA...WHERE IT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH. THIS INTERACTION WILL ENHANCE
THE CIRCULATION FROM NICARAGUA TO WESTERN COLOMBIA...FAVORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE (CAG) TO FORM. ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-125 FROM SOUTHERN NICARAGUA
INTO WEST PANAMA. MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ARE EXPECTED FROM GUATEMALA TO
NORTHWEST NICARAGUA...AS WELL AS...WESTERN COLOMBIA. AS THE
CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE FORECAST...MORE DETAILS WILL BE
PROVIDED. ADDITIONALLY...TRAILING MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...AND INTO THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION FROM A PASSING
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ACOSTA (WPC)
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