695
FXSA20 KWBC 241930
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
330 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN DISCUSSION FOR 24 JUNE 2024 AT 19 UTC: OFF THE
COAST OF CHILE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS RETURNING TO A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RETIME...AS THE SOUTH PACIFIC ANTICYCLONE REGAINS
ITS STRUCTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS ENTER THROUGH SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CHILE. STILL...UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SNOWFALL IN THE ANDES OF THE CUARTA REGION AND METROPOLITAN
REGION...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF 20-35CM THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.
TO THE SOUTH...A ROBUST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS ORGANIZING.
INITIALLY/ON MONDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO
THE AYSEN AND MAGALLANES REGIONS. ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...ACOMPANIED BY SNOW IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ARRIVE ACCOMPANIED BY FAVORABLE UPPER JET
DYNAMICS ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER DIVERGENT TIER OF THE
POLAR JET ARRIVES INTO LOS LAGOS/AYSEN. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER JET IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...35-50KT ZONALLY-ORIENTED
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...ACCOMPANIED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 30MM WILL FAVOR EXTREME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN THE PRECORDILLERA BETWEEN LOS LAGOS AND
SOUTHERN AYSEN...WHILE IN ISLA CHILOE AND THE COASTAL RANGE IN LOS
RIOS AND LOS LAGOS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY EXPECT THE EVENT PEAK. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN SOUTHERN BIO BIO INTO THE PRECORDILLERA OF LOS
LAGOS...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. IN LOCATIONS WEST AND
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. NOTICE THAT COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PATAGONIA WILL FAVOR
SNOWFALL. AS AN OCCLUDED LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ONSHORE FLOW IN
SANTA CRUZ-ARGENTINA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 10CM THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ. ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EXPECT MAXIMA UP TO 05CM IN COASTAL REGIONS OF SANTA CRUZ AND
CHUBUT AND IN INTERIOR PORTIONS...INCLUDING COMODORO RIVADAVIA.
IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS PARANA-BRASIL...THE PANTANAL AND CENTRAL BOLIVIA.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS CONTINUE FAVORING
PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN PARAGUAY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BRASIL.
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN SANTA
CATARINA AND SOUTHERN PARANA-BHRASIL...WHILE IN EASTERN PARAGUAY
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE TO SUSTAIN CYCLOGENESIS IN CORRIENTES/MISIONES/RIO
GRANDE DO SUL. NEVERTHELESS...AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOWER...AND THE REGIONS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL NOT
NECESARILLY BE IN PHASE WITH THE CYCLOGENETIC TIER OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS...AND THE RAPID SPEED OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION. STILL...EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM MMISIONES INTO
SANTA CATARINA AND PARANA-BRASIL. ACCUMULATIONS DECREASE
THEREAFTER.
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH AMERICA...EXPECT SEASONALLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON
MONDAY...A MOIST PLUME TRAILING A TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM IN AMAPA-BRASIL. ACCUMULATIONS DECREASE AFTER. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL COLOMBIA ON
MONDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
TO CLUSTER MOSTLY IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...LIMITING MAXIMA IN
SOUTHERN COLOMBIA AND FAR NORTHWEST BRASIL TO 15-20MM/DAY.
GALVEZ (WPC)
SARABIA (DMC-CHILE)
PALAVECINO (SMN-ARGENTINA)
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