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FXCA20 KWBC 261904
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 26 JUN 2024 AT 1905 UTC:
NOTE: DUE TO INTERNAL NETWORK ISSUES...SOME PRODUCTS IN OUR
WEBSITE ARE NOT AVAILABLE AND MIGHT NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. AS SOON AS THE ISSUES ARE RESOLVED...THIS WILL BE
EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN OUR MAIN WEBSITE.
ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL INDUCE CIRCULATION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND ONSHORE
FLOW WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH THE OROGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES. ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS EXPECTED FROM A FAST MOVING KELVIN WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT IS MOVING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...FROM
SOUTHERN GUANACASTE PENINSULA IN COSTA RICA...TO THE GULF OF
CHIRIQUI IN PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-150MM. FROM EAST
HONDURAS...SOUTH INTO NICARAGUA..NORTH AND EAST COSTA RICA...INTO
THE AZUERO PENINSULA IN PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THE
REST OF PANAMA...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...DUE TO THE LESS
FAVORABLE FLOW MOVING ONSHORE. RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF THE
DEVELOPING CAG...SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
40-80MM WITH THE WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW INTERACTING WITH THE
REGION. ON THURSDAY...THE CAG CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD...WHERE THE GENERALIZED CENTER IS EXPECTED OVER
NICARAGUA. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA...WHERE LONG FETCH WILL FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
WEST AZUERO PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CHIRIQUI REGION CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. SOUTHWEST PANAMA INTO SOUTH GUANACASTE CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. EL SALVADOR AND THE WEST GULF OF FONSECA
REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE CAG. GUATEMALA...BELIZE...EAST
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...EAST COSTA RICA...AND CENTRAL PANAMA CAN
EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
CAG. ON FRIDAY...THE CAG CONTINUES MOVING ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA
AND MOVES NORTHWARD...CENTERED APPROXIMATELY OVER EL SALVADOR AND
HONDURAS. LOW LEVEL JETS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CAG...WHERE BELIZE AND HONDURAS WILL BE LOCATED IN THE
CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET...FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION. IN THE GULF
OF FONSECA REGION...ONSHORE FLOW...LONG FETCH...AND HIGH AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION...AS SUCH...EAST EL SALVADOR...SOUTH HONDURAS...AND
NORTHWEST NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-150MM. WITH BELIZE
BEING IN THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE LLJ...AS WELL AS ONSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
SOUTH NICARAGUA AND NORTHWEST COSTA RICA. GENERALIZED AMOUNTS OF
30-70MM ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
CHIAPAS...GUATEMALA...AND EAST HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA...TO SOUTHERN PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. FROM
CENTRAL GUATEMALA...THROUGH CHIAPAS...SOUTH VERACRUZ...AND EAST
OAXACA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...EXPECT THE PROPAGATION OF TROPICAL
WAVES ALONG THE ITCZ TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. DUE
TO THE INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT MJO EXPECTED IN THE REGION...HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THEY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MORE LOCALIZED WITH THE PASSING OF THE WAVES. ON
WEDNESDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION IN
VENEZUELA...IN ADDITION TO THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER WEST
COLOMBIA...WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
ITCZ...EXPECT GENERALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 20-45MM. ON
THURSDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVES WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH AMERICA...WHERE EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEING
SUPPORTED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM. ON FRIDAY...CENTRAL VENEZUELA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM...AS THIS REGION WILL SEE THE EFFECTS OF TWO TROPICAL
WAVES. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN COLOMBIA WITH THE
EFFECTS OF WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED
PRECIPITATION WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE EJE VOLCANINO
TRANSVERSAL AND THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...WHERE GENERALIZED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED.
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND
EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IN ADDITION...A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS FORECAST TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25MM.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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