345
FXSA20 KWBC 261928
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
327 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
NOTE: DUE TO INTERNAL NETWORK ISSUES...SOME PRODUCTS IN OUR
WEBSITE ARE NOT AVAILABLE AND MIGHT NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. AS SOON AS THE ISSUES ARE RESOLVED...THIS WILL BE
EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN OUR MAIN WEBSITE WITH A BANNER.
SOUTH AMERICAN DISCUSSION FOR 26 JUNE 2024 AT 19 UTC: A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES IN SOUTHERN CHILE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
ROBUST ZONALLY-ORIENTED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. 20-40KT WESTERLIES
ACCOMPANIED BY A PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME OF 25-35MM OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENTERING SOUTHERN
CHILE BETWEEN SOUTHERN BIO BIO AND LOS LAGOS. THIS WILL FAVOR
ACCUMULATION OF 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN THE
PRECORDILLERA...AND 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE
COASTAL RANGE. IN AREAS SOUTH...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...EXPECT A RAPID NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL CHILE. NEVERTHELESS...THIS WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACTS
IN PRECIPITATION AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LOOSE DEFINITION BY
EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY. REGARDLESS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHILE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE IN
THE CORDILLERA...JET DYNAMICS FAVOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF
05-10CM/DAY AND VERY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25CM.
EAST OF THE ANDES...FRONTAL CONVECTION IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
CHUBUT AND SANTA CRUZ IN ARGENTINA WILL FAVOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION OF 03-06CM THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SIMILAR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ AND CHUBUT AS
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN
THE REAR TIER OF THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED NEAR/NORTHEAST
OF THE MALVINAS. BY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG PATAGONIA WILL START PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT NORTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL ARGENTINA. BY THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ALONG
THE NORTHERN BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE INTO CENTRAL MENDOZA. BY FRIDAY
EVENING EXPECT THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARANA-BRASIL...NORTHEAST
PARAGUAY...SOUTHERN BOLIVIA. ON THURSDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
FAVOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF PATAGONIA NORTH INTO
NEUQUEN. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WITH UNFAVORABLE MID-UPPER DYNAMICS AND LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. DURING FRIDAY...THE BUILDING OF A 1029 HPA
POLAR HIGH IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARGENTINA WILL FAVOR A
RAPID DRYING. HOWEVER...ONSHORE FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN BUENOS AIRES
PROVINCE WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM. NOTE
AN ISOLATED RISK FOR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATION SUCH
AS THE SIERRA DE LA VENTANA AND TANDIL. FURTHER NORTH...POST
FRONTAL CONVECTTION WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM SOUTHEAST
PARAGUAY INTO NORTHERN RIO GRANDE DO SUL/SANTA CATARINA.
ALSO...THE PAMPERO JET ACROSS THE PARAGUAYAN CHACO WILL STIMULATE
LOW-LEVEL MOSITURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ANDES OF CENTRAL BOLIVIA
TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AND MAXIMA IN THE 15-30MM/DAY RANGE.
GALVEZ (WPC)
SARABIA (DMC-CHILE)
PALAVECINO (SMN-ARGENTINA)
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