683
FXUS01 KWBC 262019
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
418 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2024
VALID 00Z THU JUN 27 2024 - 00Z SAT JUN 29 2024
..MONSOON-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, WHILE
AN UPPER LOW GLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY LATE THIS WEEK.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST/OHIO VALLEY DOWN TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BACK UP INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED SLIGHT RISKS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE; OHIO VALLEY, NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC; ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY; AND THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NORTHEAST WHILE HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
MAY CAUSE ISSUES IN THE HIGH PLAINS. SOME STORMS IN THE OHIO
VALLEY COULD PRODUCE HIGH ENOUGH RAIN RATES TO GENERATE FLASH
FLOODING TONIGHT. THUS, THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, EASTERN OHIO, WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHWESTERN OHIO. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FLOWING INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALOFT
ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE'S
A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND MUCH OF
NEW MEXICO, AS A RESULT.
THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING SHIFT INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE ONCE
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL TURN WARM AND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BENEATH A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STORMS SHOULD PICK UP IN INTENSITY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA, WESTERN
DAKOTAS, NORTHEASTERN WYOMING, WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO, WHERE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 80 MPH, LARGE HAIL GREATER
THAN 2.5 INCHES AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE'S ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE SLIGHT RISKS
ARE IN EFFECT. MONSOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO DOWN INTO
NORTHWESTERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. SOME SLOW MOVING PIECES OF
MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CAROLINA
COAST AND PROMOTE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
DIFFLUENT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP ADVANCE THE STRONG SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A
RISING WARM FRONT OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PICK UP OVER
PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE BELOW AVERAGE
CONDITIONS EXPAND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THIS WEEKEND.
KEBEDE
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