683   
FXUS01 KWBC 262019  
PMDSPD  
  
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
418 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2024  
  
VALID 00Z THU JUN 27 2024 - 00Z SAT JUN 29 2024  
   
..MONSOON-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY...  
  
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, WHILE  
AN UPPER LOW GLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE  
EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY LATE THIS WEEK.  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A  
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST/OHIO VALLEY DOWN TO THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BACK UP INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THE  
STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED SLIGHT RISKS OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE; OHIO VALLEY, NORTHEAST AND  
MID-ATLANTIC; ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY; AND THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE  
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NORTHEAST WHILE HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS  
MAY CAUSE ISSUES IN THE HIGH PLAINS. SOME STORMS IN THE OHIO  
VALLEY COULD PRODUCE HIGH ENOUGH RAIN RATES TO GENERATE FLASH  
FLOODING TONIGHT. THUS, THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE  
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, EASTERN OHIO, WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND  
NORTHWESTERN OHIO. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FLOWING INTO  
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALOFT  
ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE'S  
A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO  
FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND MUCH OF  
NEW MEXICO, AS A RESULT.  
  
THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING SHIFT INTO THE  
GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE ONCE  
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL TURN WARM AND  
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM BENEATH A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STORMS SHOULD PICK UP IN INTENSITY BY THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA, WESTERN  
DAKOTAS, NORTHEASTERN WYOMING, WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST  
COLORADO, WHERE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 80 MPH, LARGE HAIL GREATER  
THAN 2.5 INCHES AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
THERE'S ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE SLIGHT RISKS  
ARE IN EFFECT. MONSOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER  
THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN  
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO DOWN INTO  
NORTHWESTERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. SOME SLOW MOVING PIECES OF  
MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CAROLINA  
COAST AND PROMOTE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.  
  
DIFFLUENT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING  
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP ADVANCE THE STRONG SURFACE  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A  
RISING WARM FRONT OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PICK UP OVER  
PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES  
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE BELOW AVERAGE  
CONDITIONS EXPAND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT  
THIS WEEKEND.  
  
KEBEDE  
  
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
  
 
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