660
FXUS01 KWBC 271927
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
326 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2024
VALID 00Z FRI JUN 28 2024 - 00Z SUN JUN 30 2024
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE MIDWEST
FRIDAY...
...DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST...
...MONSOON-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY IN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. POTENTIAL SEVERE STORM HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE
VERY LARGE HAIL, SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS, ESPECIALLY WHERE SOILS ARE
SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS. THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK INCLUDES TWO SLIGHT RISK AREAS (LEVEL 2/4) IN THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MOST LIKELY.
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR TODAY ALSO HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT
RISK AREA (LEVEL 2/4) OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE
PERSISTENT MONSOON-LIKE RAINS ARE ONGOING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, BUT THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES IN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SPREAD EAST AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES, EXPANDING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOODING
THREATS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY, AND WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR THIS AREA AS WELL. POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, A COUPLE TORNADOES, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.
THIS WEEKEND, THE BROAD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. WHILE THE BACK END LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST DOWN ACROSS
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED, AND THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ONLY A SMALL SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL DECREASE AS WELL, AND ONLY
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND TEXAS, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH ABOVE 90
DEGREES EACH DAY IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH HUMIDITY WILL MAKE
THESE TEMPERATURES FEEL EVEN HOTTER, AND HEAT INDICES MAY REACH AS
HIGH AS 105-110 DEGREES. DAILY SUMMERTIME CONVECTION WILL BRING
SOME RELIEF TO THE SOUTHEAST, BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 70S AND 80S, PROVIDING LITTLE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
DOLAN
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