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FXUS06 KWBC 272025
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JUNE 27 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 07 2024
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) BUT DIFFER ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
THIS TROUGH AMPLITUDE AND POOR MODEL CONTINUITY RESULT IN LOWER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE TODAY FOR THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS. ANOTHER SOURCE OF FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HEADING TOWARDS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. AS OF 2PM EDT ON JUNE 27, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER STATES THAT THIS
TROPICAL WAVE HAS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS AND ECENS OFFER A WIDE RANGE OF TRACK OUTCOMES WITH THIS
POTENTIAL TC, RANGING FROM FLORIDA, THE WESTERN GULF COAST, OR NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. A LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THIS TC FORMS AND
STRENGTHENS.
SINCE THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE HIGHER (LOWER) ACROSS
THE WESTERN (EASTERN) CONUS, ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO YESTERDAY’S ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES, ACCORDINGLY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS ALONG WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION OF A VARIABLE TEMPERATURE PATTERN WITHIN THIS 5-DAY PERIOD. A
SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS AS MODEL SOLUTIONS FEATURE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
COOLER-NORMAL-TEMPERATURES ON DAYS 6 AND 7. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
THE ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS DIURNAL CONVECTION
AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST,
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER, THERE IS ONLY A
SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS BELOW GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TC EFFECTS BY DAY 10. EASTERLY
WAVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
ENHANCED WET SIGNAL EXTENDS NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WITH INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FORECAST FOR
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND NORTHEAST.
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH TO THE EAST OF ALASKA WITH LOWER
500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SINCE MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE TRENDED COOLER, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL, ELEVATED BELOW (ABOVE) NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN (EASTERN) ALASKA. CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS
ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR MAINLAND ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 50% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: FORECAST CONFIDENCE: BELOW
AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO POOR MODEL CONTINUITY AND UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK
OF A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 11 2024
FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES FOR THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ARE ALSO VALID FOR THE 8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS. ENSEMBLE MEANS DIFFER AND ARE
INCONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF A 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE
HIGHER LATITUDES OF CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. IN ADDITION, IT IS UNKNOWN IF A
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL HAVE ANY INFLUENCE ON THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST OR GULF COAST.
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE LOWER 48 STATES, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE
LIKELY DUE TO THE ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
(COOLER) OVER THE WESTERN (NORTH-CENTRAL) CONUS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE, THE COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE
DECREASED TODAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST BUT A MAJOR CHANGE WAS NOT MADE UNTIL MODEL
CONTINUITY IMPROVES. THE LARGEST ABOVE–NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES (MORE
THAN 60 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DUE TO: GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY AND
AGREEMENT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY DRYING TOPSOIL.
THE INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES, EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS ENHANCED WET SIGNAL IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECENS AND CMCE.
BASED ON MODEL AGREEMENT AND WITH A PREDICTED RIDGE ALOFT, THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS
CENTERED ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA, AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. AN AMPLIFYING 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS SUPPORTS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GREAT BASIN
AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EAST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY SINCE THE GEFS AND ECENS
DEPICT COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF MAINLAND
ALASKA AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ALASKA WHERE THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL DEPICTS A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONSISTENT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECMWF MODELS, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: FORECAST CONFIDENCE: BELOW
AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO POOR MODEL CONTINUITY AND UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK
OF A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19510607 - 19520607 - 19530607 - 19540607 - 19550607
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19510606 - 19520606 - 19530606 - 19540606 - 19550606
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 07 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 11 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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