034
FXUS06 KWBC 281957
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JUNE 28 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 04 - 08 2024
TODAY’S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY’S, WITH THE GEFS, ECMWF
(ECENS), AND CANADIAN (ECCC) ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL DEPICTING A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PICTURE OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. WEAKLY
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) WITH A WEAK JET STREAM STRETCHING ACROSS CANADA. A BROAD, LOW-AMPLITUDE
TROUGH IS DEPICTED OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS INDICATE
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER ALASKA WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
EXPANSIVE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE LOWER 48. MODELS DEPICT THE LARGEST HEIGHT
DEPARTURES OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S., AND ACCORDINGLY THE
CONSENSUS AMONG FORECAST TOOLS PLACE THE HIGHEST ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE SAME REGIONS, EXCEEDING 70% PROBABILITY FOR PORTIONS OF
CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
TROUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY, PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TILT SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
BERING SEA FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN ALASKA AND EXTENDING
INTO THE ALASKAN INTERIOR, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE
REST OF THE STATE. MOST OF HAWAII IS ALSO FAVORED FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
WHILE OAHU AND KAWAI TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, CONSISTENT WITH
THE HAWAII CON.
MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT AN ACTIVE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON (NAM) DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA EXTENDS THE AREA FAVORED TO RECEIVE ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S. WITH A
NORTHWARD-SHIFTED JET STREAM MOST FORECAST TOOLS FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. SIGNALS REGARDING
PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST TOOLS ARE WEAK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
THEREFORE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. COOL ONSHORE FLOW TILTS MUCH OF ALASKA TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ALASKAN PENINSULA AND THE PANHANDLE,
WHERE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH TODAY’S AUTOBLEND.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY AMONG FORECAST MODELS, OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS REGARDING STRENGTH AND POSITION OF VARIOUS SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 06 - 12 2024
MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT A GENERAL PERSISTENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS A WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA, AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO FAVOR A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE ALASKA REGION. OVER THE CONUS WIDESPREAD POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS,
EXPANDING TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WEAK TROUGHING RETREATS INTO
CANADA. CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGHEST (>50%) OVER
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN LIKELY TO ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW. ONGOING ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
ANOMALOUSLY COOL WATERS OF THE BERING SEA RESULTS IN AN EXPANSION OF
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, NOW COVERING THE ENTIRE STATE WITH
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (>50%) ALONG THE WESTERN COAST.
MODELS MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE NAM DURING WEEK-2, ENHANCING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. INCREASING ACTIVITY IS
FAVORED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE TROPICS, RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE GULF COAST AND UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, WHILE NORTHWARD-SHIFTING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS
BRING A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH MODELS GENERALLY KEEPING PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE WEST COAST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE OVER ALASKA DUE TO ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE BERING
SEA. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALSO REMAINS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII CON.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY AMONG FORECAST MODELS, OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS REGARDING STRENGTH AND POSITION OF VARIOUS SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19510608 - 19520608 - 19530608 - 19540608 - 19550608
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19510607 - 19520607 - 19530607 - 19540607 - 19550607
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 04 - 08 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA B N WYOMING N N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 06 - 12 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A N RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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