248
FXCA20 KWBC 282012
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
411 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 27 JUN 2024 AT 2000 UTC:
NOTE: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING A A POTENT
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 40W. PLEASE FOLLOW NHC GUIDANCE FOR
UPDATES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
ON FRIDAY...THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CAG IS
DEVELOPING ITS OWN UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH BEGINS FORMING. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE HAS
BEEN PRESENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY
EARLY SATURDAY...WHEN A STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES WILL DOMINATE IN THE MID LEVELS. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CAG...A LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...MEANING
QUINTANA ROO AND THE STATE OF YUCATAN WILL BE IN THE CYCLONIC SIDE
OF THE LLJ...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-75MM. TO THE SOUTH...EL
SALVADOR AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN HONDURAS CAN EXPECT TO
SEE SIMILAR AMOUNTS AS SOUTHWESTERN ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. THE REST OF CENTRAL AMERICA CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 20-45MM. ON SATURDAY...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IMPACTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FAVOR AMOUNTS OF
40-80MM WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. IN NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECT AMOUNTS TO DECREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS
DAYS. CENTRAL GUATEMALA INTO CHIAPAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM
WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...THE CAG IS
LOCATED FURTHER NORTH INTO THE GULF OF CAMPECHE AND THE CENTRAL
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE EAST OR
NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL INTERACT WITH MOUNTAIN RANGE
AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION AND
FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...SAN LUIS POTOSI
COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL IN A LESSER DEGREE...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. FROM SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND EAST OAXACA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.
IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY AND PRECIPITATION ISOLATED. THE EFFECTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. ON
SATURDAY...AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE DUE TO THE PASSING OF THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM FROM ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
TO TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST VENEZUELA. ON
SUNDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT APPROACHES BARBADOS
AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AS IT APPROACHES...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE PROPAGATION OF TWO
TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA...AND FROM EASTERN
VENEZUELA...TO SOUTHERN GUYANA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL FAVOR MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND. ON SATURDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED OVER WEST VENEZUELA AND CAN FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM
LAKE MARACAIBO TO EAST COLOMBIA. THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL
ENTER LAND AND PROPAGATE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND INTO NORTH
VENEZUELA. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN VENEZUELA. ON SUNDAY...THE
TROPICAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...WHERE COLLECTIVELY THEY CAN FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN
THE REGION. TO THE SOUTH...MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED. A
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AT AROUND 55W IS LOCATED
OVER GUYANA. THIS TROUGH MAY INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ AND FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM EAST VENEZUELA AND WEST GUYANA.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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