243
FXUS01 KWBC 290755
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2024
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 29 2024 - 12Z MON JUL 01 2024
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT ENTERS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TODAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE
EAST COAST ON SUNDAY...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS THROUGHOUT PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHILE WET WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY...
...DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND ANTICIPATED TO SWING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPARK SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW
TORNADOES THE MOST LIKELY WEATHER HAZARDS, PARTICULARLY FROM
EASTERN OHIO TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO LEAD TO
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGHOUT THIS REGION AND INTO THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST. AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE EAST COAST ON
SUNDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
THE SOUTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND. THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SENSITIVE TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST WILL
CREATE ADDITIONAL DAILY CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE SPECIFICALLY, PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO, SOUTHERN COLORADO, AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ARE MOST LIKELY
TO BE DEALING WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
THIS WEEKEND.
THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO TRAVERSE THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS
FORECAST TO SPARK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
SUNDAY PRIOR TO SPREADING RAINFALL CHANCES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT WELCOME FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEYS AS ONGOING RIVER FLOODING
CONTINUES. HOWEVER, THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF CONTAINING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND
SEVERE WEATHER HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TO BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE START OF JULY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S CAN BE
EXPECTED, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT OFFER MUCH RELIEF AND ONLY DIP
INTO THE LOW 80S AND UPPER 70S. IN FACT, THE WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BREAK DOZENS OF DAILY RECORDS AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW JUNE MONTHLY RECORDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
MID-ATLANTIC. MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO FOLLOW HIGH PRESSURE AS IT BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY TO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. COMFORTABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES CAN BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS.
SNELL
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